Lost lives and now their livelihoods

It isn’t just the Baisaran meadow that is deserted. The entire town of Pahalgam is desolate. A little over a month after the 22 April terror attack, the emotional and economic aftershocks are visible in every corner of this once-bustling town.

Hotels are empty, and while markets are open, the usual bustle is gone. You don’t hear laughter. Ponywallahs watch their unsaddled horses grazing. With no tourists in sight, time hangs heavy and pockets feel light.

The disruption came just when the valley was experiencing one of its most promising tourist seasons in recent memory.

“We had 100 per cent occupancy until 22 April,” Bashir Ahmad Wani, manager of a 20-room hotel in Pahalgam told National Herald. “Immediately after the attack, guests fled. No new arrivals have come since. We had to lay off half our staff — chefs, waiters, housekeeping. It’s heartbreaking.”

Over the past few years, Kashmir has seen a remarkable surge in tourist footfalls. Around 35 lakh visitors — including over 5.1 lakh Amarnath yatris — arrived last year, a rise from 27 lakh in 2023 and 26 lakh in 2022.

In the first three months of 2025, the tourism department recorded an inflow of approximately 5 lakh tourists. Within 26 days of its opening — and up until 22 April — Srinagar’s Tulip Garden attracted 8.5 lakh visitors, which included locals.

The momentum had raised hopes across the Valley, with many seeing it as a sign of long-term prosperity. It also fuelled hopes for job growth, driven by the rapid expansion of supporting infrastructure. (In 2020, the UT government under Lt. Governor Manoj Sinha had unveiled an ambitious tourism policy targeting 50,000 new jobs and Rs 2,000 crore in annual investment over five years. In 2025, stakeholders are still grappling with the fallout.)

Ishfaq Shafi, who runs Valley Holidays, a tour and travel agency, told National Herald, “Right after the attack, nearly all our confirmed bookings — over 95 per cent — were cancelled. We had to refund all the advances paid. Only a few showed up, mostly tourists from Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore. As tensions flared between India and Pakistan, tourism stopped completely. This is the emptiest I’ve ever seen. With travel advisories in place, any hope of recovery feels distant.”

Yaqoob Dunoo, owner of New Golden Flower, a houseboat on Dal Lake, adds another layer to the story. “The attack on tourists was heinous, and the escalating hostilities between the Indian and Pakistani armies made things worse. Seeing a missile-like object hit Dal Lake (Srinagar’s world-famous and top tourist spot) was terrifying. Imagine how that sounds to outsiders. Would they feel safe visiting again anytime soon?” he asks.

Dunoo, who has also served as general-secretary of the Kashmir Houseboats Owners' Association, adds, “There are 940 houseboats anchored on the waters of Dal and Nigeen lakes, as well as in the Jhelum river, plus over 10,000 registered shikaras. All are sitting idle right now.”

It’s not the first such setback over 35 years of turmoil. After nearly 15 years of stagnation in the early 1990s, chief minister Mufti Mohammad Sayeed’s government launched a major campaign in 2004 to revive tourism. Since then, the valley has seen intermittent disruptions, including the 2008 Amarnath land row, the 2009 Shopian rape and murder case, the 2010 agitation, the 2014 floods, the 2016 unrest, the 2019 abrogation of Article 370 and the 2020 Covid-19 pandemic.

“However,” Dunoo points out, “this time it’s different — and much more cruel. It was a direct attack on tourists. As per reports, terrorists shot them after asking which religion they followed. It’s far more horrific, and that’s why I think the tourism sector will take much longer to recover.”

Mushtaq Chaya, owner of a range of luxury hotels and chairman of the J&K Hoteliers' Club, told National Herald, “Out of a total population of 80 lakh, 30 lakh are directly or indirectly dependent on the tourism sector for their livelihoods.” The numbers underscore the scale of the crisis and how deeply tourism is embedded in the region’s socioeconomic fabric.

“This is the only sector that creates jobs and circulates money within the community,” Chaya adds. “Unlike orchards or farmland, where revenue goes to one person, a hotel’s income is shared — between the owner, the staff and through local spending. With around 4,000 hotels in the Valley, tourism is the backbone of the J&K economy.”

Ejaz Ayoub, a prominent economist, offers a different perspective. “Tourism,” Ayoub points out, “contributes only 3.2 per cent to Jammu and Kashmir’s GSDP… it grabs attention due to its immediacy and visibility.” Agriculture and allied sectors contribute approximately 20 per cent to the annual GSDP. Handicrafts and cottage industries also play a significant role. So, it’s not really tourism but “less visible yet more essential” sectors like agriculture, handicrafts and construction that form the backbone of J&K’s economy.

Having said that, what the tourism sector does is create employment across a value chain. Ayoub cites the latest J&K Economic Survey (2024–25), which reveals that the estimated annual Gross State Value Added (GSVA) from the hotel industry is around Rs 2,700 crore.

This spending creates direct jobs in hotels and also supports indirect employment. For instance, hotels purchase food from local farmers, who use those earnings to buy supplies. Tourists drive demand for local handicrafts and services like taxis, shikaras and pony rides, supporting a parallel gig economy.

“Gig economy workers, who lack formal contracts, are especially vulnerable to fluctuations in tourist inflow. The sharp decline in tourism after the Pahalgam attack has severely impacted their earnings and financial stability,” Ayoub told NH.

It is unlikely that tourism in Kashmir will revive swiftly, or soon. Addressing a meeting with key stakeholders on 15 May, chief minister Omar Abdullah said, “We should approach tourism revival in a structured and result-oriented manner, without undue haste.”

That doesn’t do much for those whose social survival depends on the sector. Grassroots voices emphasise the urgent need to bring tourists back to the valley.

“It’s not about some big businesspeople,” said Mohammad Yousuf Chapri, former head of the Houseboat Owners' Association. “The dent in the tourism sector will affect the poor the most. I know several youngsters who have taken bank loans to set up tourism-related businesses; now they are unable to pay their EMIs.”

He added, “Tourism isn’t only about hotels. Transport, accommodation, food services, entertainment, attractions; and related sectors such as travel agencies, tour operators and event management all play crucial roles in the tourism industry. The livelihoods of lakhs of individuals and families hang in the balance. It is vital that local stakeholders urgently initiate a nationwide campaign to attract tourists.”

Many see the upcoming Amarnath Yatra — scheduled from 3 July to 9 August — as a potential turning point. If pilgrims arrive in the kind of large numbers they did last year, it might spell a new beginning.

“If this year’s yatra is successful, it could pave the way for the restart and revival of tourism here,” Riyaz Ahmad, a ponywallah in Pahalgam, told this reporter.

For the Valley, the road to recovery looks long and uncertain, but its resilient people are still hopeful.