Election in 5 states: Exit Polls escalate apprehensions of the BJP government 

Rajasthan is one of the three BJP ruled states which has the highest percentage of Muslim voters. It is only here that most of the incidents of communal violence and mob lynching by cow vigilantes have taken place in the last couple of years. It is here that communal passion was whipped up on the run-up to the release of film Padmaavat last January. And it is here that Prime Minister Narendra Modi and chief minister Vasundara Raje put up united show.

Yet it is in this largest state of the country that there is near unanimity among the exit polls that the BJP is going to lose heavily. In contrast the saffron party is keeping its fingers crossed in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh though exit polls are divided.

The expected verdict in Rajasthan is a pointer to the fact that communal issues are no more going to win election for the Bharatiya Janata Party. It is the performance of the government both at the states and the Centre which matters.

The other states where Muslims form a sizeable percentage and which went to poll recently is Telangana. Here there is about 12% Muslim population. This is the state where there is a history of communal riots.

As most of the region comprising Telangana was a part of erstwhile Nizam state there was some scope to communalise the situation. Besides, there was the presence of Asaduddin Owaisi led All India Majlis-e-Ittehad-ul-Muslemeen––which has an alliance with the ruling Telangana Rashtriya Samiti. AIMIM, like the BJP, also thrives on communal issues.

The BJP left no stone unturned to make communal capital of this situation. It pressed into service the fire brand Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath. The latter, while delivering his speeches, claimed that Owaisi will be thrown out of the state like Nizam. Though, it is a fact that Nizam remained in Hyderabad for rest of his life.

During the election campaign the BJP National President Amit Shah and other leaders made a loud claim that the saffron party would single-handedly win election in Telangana.

But all the exit poll suggest that the BJP is nowhere in the race.

Though the final results of the election of five Assemblies could be known only by Tuesday, December 11 afternoon there is no denying the fact that the BJP is going to perform badly. People are not going to vote as per its wishes.

As elections in the Hindi heartland states of Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh precede the Lok Sabha election, many political observers have dubbed it as semi-final. In whatever ways these elections are defined, history suggests that the BJP is not going to do well this time.

It is true that the saffron party had won elections in these states in 2013. But that was on different slogans. A hope was generated that Narendra Modi led BJP would bring about a big change in the coming Lok Sabha election in 2014. The communal temper was relatively kept in check. Voters then thought that the BJP would become responsible after coming to the power. But December 7 exit polls suggest that the voters have largely disapproved the ruling party.

Another example is of 2003 Assembly elections in these states which were held less than a year after the famous December 2002 victory of the BJP in Gujarat. The BJP had then fully en-cashed the communal riots early in the same year. It is the victory in these three states which prompted the BJP to advance dates of election by six months in 2004.

But the BJP lost the Lok Sabha election in 2004, though it made tall claims about Shining India and Good Governance. A section of hard-liners even tried to communalise the election in some parts of the country. But the efforts did not yield result. Even in Gujarat the Congress then managed to win 12 out of 26 seats. This was a big blow to Narendra Modi.

The expected results of the recently held elections have once again confirmed that communal politics has its limitation and it is the performance which matters.