It is time to heed UN Chief’s appeal and announce a ceasefire in Kashmir amid raging battle against COVID-19

"...That is why today, I am calling for an immediate global ceasefire in all corners of the world. It is time to put armed conflict on lockdown and focus together on the true fight of our lives," said UN General Secretary António Guterres last month while appealing for a global ceasefire, given the COVID-19 pandemic.

While the UN Chief's call was endorsed by as many as 70 states from across the world, it evidently fell on deaf ears in Kashmir amidst the continuous rat-a-tat of guns. It seems both the government and armed groups chose to close their mind to the call.

Amid the current bedlam unleashed by the novel virus, the conflicting parties could turn the things messier in this Himalayan region where the healthcare system is already in a rather bad shape.

The continuous and overnight search operations carried out by the security forces in the deep and populous villages of the Valley have been putting the lives of hundreds on the line as the number of COVID-19 cases is going through the ceiling. More than a hundred positive cases have been reported from Jammu and Kashmir while two persons have already lost their lives to the novel virus thus far.

Although a senior police officer, who declined to be quoted in this report, said that forces were taking full measures during the anti-militancy operations to stave off the spread of Coronavirus, the conflict experts opine differently.

Manzoor Ahmad, who teaches conflict studies at a local university says that social distancing is the one of the key guidelines of World Health Organisation (WHO) to head off the spread of baffling disease, but practically it is not possible to maintain this distance during anti-militancy operations taking place largely in the rural areas of the Valley.

Although there are no official statistics available about the presence of actual number of forces in Jammu and Kashmir, non-official data suggests that more than 6 lakh troopers are deployed across the region. Under such circumstances, the odds of spreading COVID-19 are high if the anti-militancy operations and free movement of troops are not halted.

There are an estimated 200-250 militants operating in the Valley. The main militants outfits active in the region include Hizbul Mujahidin, Lashkar-e-Toaiba and Jaish-e-Mohammad.

While the State is rather mute to the ceasefire call made by the UN chief, there are no statements from the non-state actors hinting at announcing a ceasefire either.

However, last week, an audio message purportedly of Hizbul Mujahidin militant commander Riyaz Naikoo said that people should stay indoors and maintain social distancing to beat the virus.

"The ball is in the court of state. The militants are only a few in number with rather limited weaponry. Their armed activities are bare minimum," says Ahmad.

Since March 2020, at least 16 militants were killed over six anti- militancy operations while militants carried out nearly five attacks in the Valley. Three soldiers and a police man also lost their lives during such operations. Five civilians have also been shot by unknown militants during this period.

By announcing a ceasefire, the states usually do not want to project themselves as weaker parties and want to take full advantage of the situation unleashed by the global pandemic. For security agencies, the surveillance has become much easier due to the total lockdown and various machines like Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) drones are being pressed into the service to keep a tab on people across the globe.

In the Valley, political observers see an opportunity in the UN Chief's global call of ceasefire. They believe that the global pandemic could draw many states with conflicting interests together.

"The pandemic has exposed even the mighty. Today the world is fighting with frontline healthcare workers rather than with guns and bombs. The situation can draw nations close as we have recently seen Prime Minister Modi holding a video conference of SAARC nations and Pakistan participating in it," said Proff. Noor Ahmad Baba, a prominent political analyst of Kashmir.

Shahnawaz Mantoo, another political observer, says that COVID-19 has paved the way for global co-operation and there was a need for a ceasefire more than ever before.

"The urgency of a ceasefire in the current situation is more. It could prove a monumental confidence building measure," Mantoo added.

During the regime of former PM Atal Bihari Vajpayee, Hizbul Mujahidin’s (HM) chief operational commander Majeed Dar had for the first time on July 24, 2000 announced a unilateral ceasefire for three months. The government had immediately responded by suspending its military operations against the outfit. A meeting between the representative of New Delhi and militants was also held.

During the truce, army men and HM militants even played a cricket match at a village in north Kashmir's Kupwara district.

However, the talks failed as the demand made by Salahudin, the PoK based chief of HM, of including Pakistan in the dialogue was spurned by New Delhi and on August 8, he unilaterally called off the ceasefire.

Similarly, in 2018, a unilateral ceasefire was announced by government during the month of Ramadhan. However, militant groups continued their operations against the forces during this period.

Many political observers at that time refrained from calling it a cease fire as they believed that government merely halted the military operations against the militants.

"It starts by stopping the fighting everywhere. Now. That is what our human family needs, now more than ever," the UN Chief had concluded his appeal for global ceasefire with these words.