Relentless farmers’ agitation is a real threat to the BJP govt at the Centre

Farmers have marked 100 days of protests and Covid-19 has been going on for a year, both the anniversaries falling somewhat in the same week. And neither is in a hurry to say quits. The coronavirus is mutating and so has the farmers agitation against the Modi Government's new farm laws. The farmers have now started blocking an expressway running by Delhi. The hold-ups at the border outposts continue, but the jamming of the expressway covers a wider swathe and the colourful sprawl of the tent across the breadth of the expressway is astonishingly breathtaking. Even the blacktop has transformed into a myriad of shades, red, blue and green with a smattering of yellow in between.

The question arises what have the farmers' protests achieved so far? If it's about the new farm laws, nothing at all. The single point demand for the repeal of the three farm laws stands dishonoured. The Narendra Modi Government has pointblank refused to concede to this demand. For, ever since the laws were passed, "forced through" as the farmers like to say, all that the Government has been doing is run circles around the three farm laws. That is, apart from the 11 or 12 rounds of unfruitful talks which did not go far.

But is it the only thing that the protestors wanted- the repeal of the three new farm laws? No. The dissatisfaction runs far deeper and covers a lot more ground. In fact, even before the 100-day marker came, word was out that the farmers and their wider extended family of workers and Dalits and other downtrodden sections together wanted the ouster of the "Hindu nationalist BJP Government" led by the "authoritarian by far" Narendra Modi.

The word was out, the clarion call, to defeat the saffron party and its few remaining allies in the elections to the five state assemblies, starting with a fitting drubbing in the West Bengal assembly polls where Union Home Minister Amit Shah has been making a number of tall claims; and where Prime Minister Narendra Modi went the other day and very pointedly claimed the sole ownership of NDA Government schemes, from gas cylinders to women to DBT to farmers, his speech packed with "I did this..." and "I did that..." as if nobody else other than him in the Government did or does anything at all!

In fact, there's a strong undercurrent of mild dissatisfaction running in the Modi stable. Maybe that's why Modi kept saying "I did this" and "I did that" at the Kolkata Brigade Ground rally, to warn folks closer home that he had the pulse of the voter not they.

Actually the farmers agitation has had a dragging effect on everybody including members of the BJP, and BJP members of Parliament. Maybe the ground realities in their constituencies are giving BJP MPs sleepless nights and harrowing waking hours. Maybe, they have felt the glowering glares that followed them when they drove past the village square.

Fact remains, however, that the Modi Government can be ousted with simple arithmetic. Like one farmer leader told fellow panelists in a TV programme, there are 90 crore voters in the country and out of those nearly 60 crore voted in 2019. The BJP pocketed around 37 per cent of the 60 crore votes but that accounts for only around 23 or 24%. Not very difficult to turn it to say 12 to 15% vote share, the farmer leader said.

That BJP most probably understands and is acutely aware of this threat right from the beginning. Especially after the farmers’ agitation picked up speed and went global.

The achievement of the farmers’ agitation is that it has succeeded in creating a coalition of different stakeholders with a singularly sole goal: The ouster of a regime that is perceived as anti-farmer, anti-worker and anti- everything that is right in the eyes of the right-minded, including those battling climate change, closed boundaries and unfettered immigration. It is remarkable that where efforts by political parties to stitch a mahagathbandan to unseat Modi/BJP failed, the farmers agitation has succeeded in forging unity of purpose.

It has now become clear that unity cannot be forged between politicians and political parties, which is an exercise in futility. What was needed was unity among voters irrespective of party affiliation and ideology. And the farmers, the "annadatas" of the nation, are the gel that has forged unity in purpose among a very big chunk of the electorate. Unity that is bottom-up, not top-down. There is today a vote-bank large enough to show Narendra Modi the door if properly pursued. A vote-bank of farmers, workers, Dalits, Muslims, military veterans... The farmers agitation has forged together a "mahagathbandan" of anti-Modi voters, not political parties. Period.

The views expressed are personal

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