Uphill task for BJP to eke out victories in forthcoming polls with opposition parties in a strong position

The stage is set for the crucial assembly elections to the four states of West Bengal, Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and the Union Territory of Puducherry following the announcement by the Election Commission of the dates in April and May this year. This will be for the first time in 2021 that assembly elections will be held in the country in important states amidst the surge in Covid virus in many of the states, especially in Kerala. The last assembly election was held in Bihar in October last year.

For the BJP, the most important state is West Bengal and the entire leadership of the party has been mobilised for campaigning in the state backed by unprecedented use of financial muscle and booth level organisational preparedness by RSS cadres. For the saffrons, the state has to be seized from the clutches of the Trinamool Congress led by Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee at any cost.

The Bengal polls will see a triangular fight between the TMC, the BJP and the alliance of the Left Front, Congress and the Indian Secular Front led by Abbas Siddiqui.

Against this complex scenario in Bengal, the scenario is quite positive for anti-BJP forces in Kerala, TN and Assam. In Kerala, the ruling Left Democratic Front will be fighting the Congress-led UDF to retain power, with the BJP nowhere in the contention. Led by Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, the Congress is working hard and is likely to see big gains.

In Tamil Nadu, while the scenario is a little better for BJP compared to Kerala due to its alliance with AIADMK, the opposition front led by the DMK is well placed now with the possible participation of the Congress as well as the CPI and the CPI-M. In view of the leadership capabilities of M K Stalin, it is quite possible that the DMK front will be able to unseat the present AIADMK government.

In Assam, the Congress has worked hard to forge a front along with AIUDF and the Left parties and the BJP is in a panic despite having massive resources at its disposal as usual. Over the next two months, the Congress-led front has plans to reach every booth and organise contact programmes at the grassroots level as the RSS cadres have been mobilised in a massive way to conduct the BJP’s poll campaign.

In Puducherry, the Congress government fell this week due to defection by some legislators, with the BJP allegedly using the stick and carrot method on them. In the coming elections, the BJP and its allies will make all kinds of effort to come into power, but the party is weak in Puducherry. On the contrary, former chief minister V Narayanswamy has experience and goodwill which will come in good stead for the Congress.

(IPA Service)

(Views are personal)