As allies abandon ship, is NDA also on the verge of collapse?

Bihar’s Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP)-led by Upendra Kushwaha, on Monday, December 10, made it evident that he wouldn’t be attending the NDA allies meet. Earlier too he had suggested that he was on the verge of breaking ranks with the NDA after his demands for a decent share of seats in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections were ignored. He is set to meet Congress president Rahul Gandhi on December 10.

This comes after after BJP’s debacle in Jammu and Kashmir where its alliance with Mehbooba Mufti's Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) failed. BJP cited Mehbooba's Kashmir-centric approach, rise in militancy in Kashmir, Kathua rape and murder, unilateral decision making by Mufti and BJP’s failure to fulfill promise of resolving the Kashmir issue as reasons.

However, there has been an alarming displeasure among other BJP allies as well. And its not just these two.

BJP lost the support of Jitan Ram Manjhi's Hindustani Awam Morcha in Bihar.

Allies such as the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) in Assam and IPFT in Tripura are at the loggerheads with the BJP. The IPFT has threatened to go on protests in Delhi on the issues of NRC and Separate state for tribals “the Tipraland”. AGP on the other hand has been threatening to quit the alliance because of BJP’s bid to pass the Bill that seeks to grant citizenship to non-Muslims from Bangladesh, Pakistan and Afghanistan who migrated to India till December 31, 2014. Both are at odds with BJP over the issue of the Citizenship (Amendment) Bill 2016

However it's worth noting that this is not the first time the BJP’s allies have expressed their anger over the treatment meted against them by the Modi government . Since 2014, at least 11 parties have left the NDA or distanced themselves from the alliance led by BJP some have engaged in open ridicule of PM Modi. There are other parties who have either quit or are unhappy in the alliance.

The following parties have broken away from the alliance or are threatening to quit the alliance:

Shiv Sena: Uddhav Thackeray's party is the in Maharashtra BJP's oldest ally. Both the parties shared a common ground on Hindutva and other issues over the years but Uddhav Thackeray's recent Ayodhya visit to push for construction of Ram Mandir had created hostility between the allies. ‘However the relationship between the two parties has turned sour right after the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. Shiv sena also adopted a political resolution to contest all elections in the future on its own. In 2014, the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance along with other parties won 42 of 48 seats in Maharashtra, reported the News Nation. The Shiv Sena was able to win 18 Lok Sabha seats that time, its best. Earlier, the party's best performance was in 1996 when it was able to win 15 seats. However, both parties parted ways four years ago and contested the Maharashtra Assembly elections separately in which the BJP emerged as the single largest party with 122 seats and formed the government. On many occasions Shiv Sena leader like Sanjay Raut have criticised the government on GST, demonetization etc.

But interestingly the Shiv Sena with its 63 MLAs also decided to join the Devendra Fadnavis-led (BJP) government and its ministers are still continuing with the central as well as the state governments in order to “make the government serve the interest of the Maharashtrians . According to reports, the Shiv Sena is currently demanding a 50-50 seat-sharing arrangement for 288 seats of Maharashtra Assembly.

On the other hand, Swabhimani Paksha: Farmer leader Raju Shetti's Swabhimani Paksha quit the NDA over the Modi government's stating the BJP’S "apathy towards farmers". Shetti contested the Lok Sabha and Assembly elections along with the BJP in 2014. Shetty won the Hatkhanagale Lok Sabha seat in 2014. He decided to remain with the NDA for 2014 Maharashtra Assembly elections and he did not join the Shiv Sena. He left the NDA alleging Modi government's stating "anti-farmer policies" for his exit. He is now in talks with all the anti-BJP forces and likely to join them before the upcoming Lok Sabha elections in 2019.

N Chandrababu Naidu-led TDP has quit the alliance and begun to openly criticised the Modi- government

Telugu Desam Party (TDP): Chandrababu Naidu's TDP had contested the 2014 Lok Sabha and Assembly elections as a member of NDA. The party was able to put up a good show due to the “Modi wave” and the issue of state bifurcation and demands of Telangana, reported the NewsNation. In Andhra Pradesh the NDA won 17/25 Lok Sabha and 106/175 Assembly seats in 2014. Further the alliance also got 2/17 Lok Sabha and 20/119 Assembly seats in Telangana in 2014. However in early 2018 Naidu decided to quit the alliance as Andhra Pradesh was denied of a special status by the Centre. In Fact the party decided join the Congress party led alliance "Prajakutami" (People's Alliance) in Telangana (including the Telangana Jana Samithi (TJS) and the Communist Party of India (CPI)) for the upcoming state assembly elections.

Jana Sena Party: Actor-turned-politician Pawan Kalyan's Jana Sena Party had supported the TDP-BJP alliance in the 2014 Lok Sabha and Assembly elections but now has taken a decision to contest the upcoming polls on its own. In 2014, Kalyan had addressed rallies with Narendra Modi and Chandrababu Naidu but Kalyan these days is busy in projecting himself as an alternative to Naidu and Jaganmohan Reddy (Congress) in Andhra Pradesh. Kalyan has also accused the BJP of practising vendetta politics by conducting IT raids against him.

In Tamil Nadu, MDMK: Vaiyapuri Gopalsamy’s (Vaiko) Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK) was the earliest member to quit the NDA just after the Lok Sabha elections in 2014. The party had contested on 7 seats in Tamil Nadu but lost all the seats. Vaiko himself lost in Virudhunagar. The party decided to quit the NDA alliance accusing the BJP government at the Centre for acting against the interest of the Tamils and betraying the people of the state.

Vaiko later allied with the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK), Left parties in 2016 in the People's Welfare Front (PWF) also got the support of Vijayakanth's DMDK and GK Vasan's TMC but the front was not able to secure even a single seat. The MDMK had recently decided to join forces with MK Stalin's Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and also indicated that it has no issues with the Congress party.

PMK: The S Ramadoss-led Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) is another Tamil Nadu party which has distanced itself from the BJP. The PMK was with the BJP in 2014 Lok Sabha elections and contested 8 seats. Apart from Ramadoss' son Anbumani Ramadoss from Dharmapuri, all other candidates of the party lost the elections. Ramadoss wanted his son Ambumani to be inducted in the Modi Cabinet a demand which was rejected. The party had decided to fight the 2016 Tamil Nadu Assembly polls alone when the BJP decided not to project Anbumani as the alliance's chief ministerial candidate. The party also attacked the 'saffron party' after BJP Tamil Nadu chief Tamilisai Soundararajan reportedly made remarks against the PMK leadership at a public meeting in Singaperumalkoil. The cadres of the two parties clashed outside the BJP office in Chennai. The PMK cadre took out a procession, chanting shouting slogans against the BJP.

DMDK: The Vijayakanth-led Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) had forged an alliance with the BJP in Tamil Nadu just before the 2014 Lok Sabha elections and contested on 14 parliamentary seats. However, the party lost all seats. The DMDK left the NDA in 2016 to contest the Tamil Nadu Assembly polls in alliance with the newly formed People's Welfare Front (PWF). It contested on 104 Assembly seats in Tamil Nadu but was unable to open its account. Vijayakanth recently ruled out the possibility of any alliance with the BJP. The BJP has also hinted that it is likely to support actor Rajinikanth’s party in the upcoming polls.

In Haryana, Haryana Janhit Congress: Former Chief Minister Bhajan Lal's son Kuldeep Bishnoi had fought the 2014 Lok Sabha elections with NDA. His party Haryana Janhit Congress (HJC), but lost all seats. Bishnoi himself lost the elections from Hissar. Later that year, the BJP decided to contest the Assembly elections in Haryana on its own and grabbed the power for the first time. On the other hand Bishnoi's party was able to get only 2 seats in the 90-member strong Haryana Assembly. Bishnoi, in 2016, joined Congress-led UPA.

In the Northeast, GJM: The Benoy Tamang faction of the Gorkha Janmukti Morcha (GJM) also pulled out of the NDA in March 2018. However, the Bimal Gurung faction of the GJM is still with the BJP. The GJM supported the BJP in 2009 and 2014 Lok Sabha elections in the north-Bengal region as well as assembly polls.

In Kerala, JRS: Kerala tribal leader CK Janu's Janadhipathya Rashtriya Sabha (JRS), parted its way from NDA recently. She decided to leave the alliance as many of the promises made to her and her party were apparently not fulfilled.

The BJP, however, has been able to retain some of its partners till now. The party's alliances with the Shiromani Akali Dal in Punjab, Lok Janshakti Party and Rashtriya Lok Samata Party in Bihar, Apna Dal in Uttar Pradesh, RPI-A in Maharashtra, AINRC in Puducherry, NPP in Meghalaya are still intact. But there has been continuous friction among other members.