As the lockdown 3.0 continues with few relaxations, India's current trajectory indicates alarming figures
The number of reported coronavirus cases in India rose 14 percent over the past two days to 52,952
Data from the ministry of health and family welfare shows that the number of cases has gone up by 25 percent in last 3 days
This is a faster rate of increase compared to the previous three days, when confirmed cases had risen by 22 percent.
India’s coronavirus trajectory had tapered over the past couple of weeks
Now it continues to be steeper compared to several Asian peers such as Japan and Indonesia.
In many Asian countries including India, new infections are still rising.
India’s case count is now roughly double what it was eleven days ago.
This is a much slower rate compared to early-April, when cases were doubling every four days.
Inspite of the flattening curve of infection, deaths have picked up pace over the past week.
India’s death toll from covid-19 as of Thursday morning was 1,783, roughly double what it was ten days ago.
At the current rate of compounded daily growth, the number of cases could rise to 75,000 in the next five days.
If this trajectory continues beyond that period, it could overwhelm India’s hospital capacity
The steep rise in the death rate is worrisome as the healthcare system still lacks required number of ICU beds and ventilators
Testing across states has been uneven and as testing gets ramped up, more cases could come to light
Over the past seven days, Punjab, Tamil Nadu, and Delhi have seen the highest spike in cases
These three states account for 42 percent of all the new active cases in this period.
Over the same period, fatalities have surged the most in West Bengal, Gujarat, and Rajasthan.