Will 2019 be all about anti-incumbency?
There is a widespread belief that Indian elections are characterized by ‘anti incumbency’ and that most ruling governments are not re-elected by voters.
In our analysis of big and medium sized states, in the period 1977– 2002, 70 percent of governments were thrown out by angry, dissatisfied voters. However, this has changed over the last twenty years.
To put it simply, the Anti-Incumbency Era is over.
India is now going through what can be called a ‘Fifty:Fifty Era’. Governments today have a 50:50 chance of being re-elected. Governments that perform are voted back. Those that do not deliver are voted out.
The angry voter has given way to a wiser, more mature voter. The underlying probability of governments being voted back has risen from 30 per cent to 50 per cent. This may come as a relief to many ruling state governments as well as to the Central government.
This Fifty:Fifty era marks a sea change in our electoral history, which has had three major turning points: Pro-incumbency (1952–1977), Anti- incumbency (1977–2002) and Fifty:Fifty (2002–2019).
While a 50 per cent re-election rate is far more reassuring for ruling governments than earlier, this is low compared with the re-election rates of over 80 per cent in developed economies.
Who will win and lose in the 2019 elections?
The bad news for ruling governments is that the voter is wiser and smarter. Voters throw out all non-performing governments and re-elect governments that have worked and delivered.
A corollary to the end of the antiincumbency era is that in the current Fifty:Fifty phase of our democracy, the voter has a message for all elected governments: perform or perish.
The voters’ yardstick for ‘performance’ is whether economic growth translates into genuine development on the ground, in their lives and their constituencies.
So elections today are not won simply by flamboyance.The most successful chief ministers over the last twenty years, with high re-election rates, have been lowkey, result-oriented leaders like Shivraj Chouhan, Naveen Patnaik, Raman Singh, Manik Sarkar and Sheila Dikshit. All at least three-time winners. Oratory also works as long as it is combined with development, as in the case of Narendra Modi when he was chief minister of Gujarat.
Will the MPs going into the next Lok Sabha be young like the voters of India?
Our members of Parliament are much older than the average age of voters. Once again, expect older candidates as the average age of members of the Lok Sabha has been rising with every election.
Today, almost 60 per cent of voters in India are young, between the ages of eighteen and forty. But only 15 per cent of MPs are between twenty-five and forty years old.
This means that 85 per cent of MPs are of a different generation from the majority of voters.
And it’s a widening age gap! For the BJP, the rising number of young voters is a positive development. In the recent past, the BJP and its allies have had a greater support amongst young voters. In 2014, the NDA had a 20 per cent lead over the UPA among young voters compared to a 11 per cent lead amongst older voters (based on our exit and post polls).
Expect 2019 to be the ‘election of the women of India’
Women’s participation in elections has been rising much faster than men, and the next Lok Sabha elections could be the first time in India’s history that women’s turnout will be higher than men’s.
Between the 1962 and 2014 Lok Sabha elections there has been nearly a 20 per cent increase in women’s turnout versus only a 5 per cent increase in men’s turnout. Today, the turnout of both women and men is almost the same.
In fact, in State Assembly elections, women’s turnout has now overtaken men’s turnout. Women voters had a 71 per cent turnout versus 70 per cent for men. A revolutionary change.
Most important will be the votes of village women
Expect the focus of this election to be the women in villages. The biggest change in Indian elections has been the increasing turnout of rural women—and it is now at virtually the same level as men’s turnout. Six per cent more village women turn out to vote than their urban counterparts. This is a huge change from 1971 when the turnout of women in rural areas was 8 per cent lower than in towns. A complete turnaround!
Women voters: Safety matters
Women’s participation in voting is today higher in the safer, more women- friendly states of east and south India. Amongst the top states are West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. The worst states for women’s turnout, compared to the men, are primarily in the Hindi-speaking-belt in central and west India, especially Delhi (our capital city that has the worst recorded crime rate against women), Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. In the 2019 elections, watch out for social media rumour-mongering that may be aimed at keeping women from venturing out to the polling stations
Parties will focus on women voters like never before
Election campaigns earlier were almost solely focused on men: first, because there were many more men voters than women; second, men in the family used to be a primary influence on who women would vote for.
Today, not only are more women turning out to vote than men, but they are also making independent decisions on who to vote for.
Expect political speeches, manifestos and campaigns to be directed more at women than ever before in the history of elections in India.
Who do women vote for?
Traditionally, the BJP has had a higher support base amongst men than women. For example, in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the lead of NDA over the UPA amongst men in India was 19 per cent while its lead amongst women voters was 9 per cent (based on our opinion and exit polls). This greater male-centric support base of the NDA is even more exaggerated in the bigger states of central, north and west India.
Which is why the government’s free gas cylinder policy (Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana) was a perfect election campaign idea; it targeted primarily rural, women voters. All parties can now be expected to make similar promises targeting women in these elections.
To illustrate how important the male voter is for the NDA, a simple simulation of the 2014 elections threw up two alternative scenarios. First, if only men had voted, the NDA would have won as many as 376 seats (40 seats more than the 336 that they actually won). Second, if only women had voted, the NDA would have won only 265 seats (71 seats lower than their final total in 2014 and 7 seats below the halfway mark of 272).
Rural turnout is higher than urban turnout
The number of people living in rural areas has always been greater than the urban population, but there is now a new reason why they are even more crucial to India’s elections.
The voter turnout in rural areas has been rising faster than urban areas and today, the turnout in villages is about 4 per cent higher than the turnout in urban areas in Lok Sabha elections.
This high and faster-growing turnout of rural voters may be of some concern for the BJP+ as it traditionally has a higher support base among the urban electorate and lower in the rural areas.
More than ever before, be prepared for more sops being targeted at the village voter rather than the one in towns and cities.
Lok Sabha elections are no longer just about the Lok Sabha
\For the average voter today, Lok Sabha politicians are becoming less and less important compared to panchayat leaders and MLAs. This was not true even a decade ago. Voter turnout for local elections is now higher than for the Lok Sabha. Panchayat leaders and MLAs often have higher face and name recognition than MPs.
The high voter participation in panchayat, municipal and State Assembly elections is further evidence that grass-roots democracy is becoming increasingly crucial in India. Consequently, expect parties to rope in panchayat and municipal leaders, as well as MLAs, in the campaign for this Lok Sabha election.
No longer a national election. It’s a true federation-of- states-election
The importance of regional leaders and regional issues even in Lok Sabha elections, is reflected in the sharp rise in the number and strength of regional parties: this important new phenomenon of Indian elections has converted our general elections into a combination of state-level ‘regional or sub-national-elections’.
The number of seats won by regional parties has risen from an average of thirty-five Lok Sabha seats in the early phase after Independence to over 160 seats now, almost a third of the seats in the Lok Sabha, and the trend is decidedly upwards.
Even more significant is the rapid increase in the votes that regional parties are now winning. In the early phase of Indian elections, regional parties won 4 per cent of the vote, this has now risen to 34 per cent of the national vote in Lok Sabha elections, which is eight times higher and hugely significant for every forthcoming Lok Sabha election. Regional parties are the future drivers of the democratic system in India.
The end of the all-India ‘uniform-swing’ will play a crucial role in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The importance of strong sub-national parties will create state-level swings and relegate the phenomenon of a national swing to a memory from the past. It’s probably best not to focus exclusively on the ‘Modi-Shah-appeal’ or the ‘RahulPriyanka-effect’ or even the ‘Modi-Rahulcontest’ in 2019. Increasingly, it is the ‘stateleader- impact’ that will be more relevant. Add to this the many major parties that have a strong regional base. Clearly, in any analysis of who will win the 2019 Lok Sabha election, it is important to assess the politics at a more micro level. The final all-India analysis should reflect the sum of different states of India.