Rare drop in power sector CO₂ emissions in first half of 2025

India’s carbon dioxide emissions from the power sector declined by 1 per cent year-on-year during the first half of 2025 and by 0.2 per cent over the past 12 months — marking only the second such decrease in nearly 50 years, according to a new analysis released on 18 September.

The study, conducted by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) for UK-based organisation Carbon Brief, noted that India has contributed nearly two-fifths of the global growth in energy sector emissions since 2019. ‘In 2024 [however], India accounted for 8 per cent of the global energy CO2 emissions, despite having 18 per cent of the world's population and per capita emissions far below the global average,’ the report stated.

While overall power generation increased by 9 terawatt hours (TWh) in the first six months of 2025, fossil fuel-based generation dropped by 29 TWh. This was offset by growth in clean energy sources — solar contributed an additional 17 TWh, wind added 9 TWh, hydropower rose by 9 TWh and nuclear increased by 3 TWh.

Analysis of government data by CREA found that 65 per cent of the decline in fossil fuel generation was linked to slower electricity demand growth. A further 20 per cent was attributed to an accelerated expansion of non-hydro clean energy, with the remaining 15 per cent due to a rise in hydropower output.

A combination of milder temperatures, higher rainfall and weaker industrial activity helped suppress electricity usage. Rainfall between March and May 2025 was 42 per cent above normal, significantly boosting hydropower generation.

“This cut air conditioning demand, which accounts for around 10 per cent of the total electricity consumption. By contrast, record heatwaves in 2024 spiked power demand,” the report explained.

The growth in clean energy was driven by a record 25.1 gigawatts (GW) of non-fossil capacity additions in the first half of 2025 — a 69 per cent increase compared to the same period in 2024.

Solar energy led these new installations, contributing 14.3 GW from utility-scale projects and a further 3.2 GW from rooftop systems.

“Solar also drove most of the new clean-power generation, delivering 62 per cent of the additional output, followed by hydropower at 16 per cent, wind at 13 per cent and nuclear at 8 per cent,” the analysis said.

Emissions must fall fast to limit warming, IPCC warns

The modest fall in India’s power sector emissions aligns with broader global efforts to reduce greenhouse gases, though experts warn that much deeper and sustained cuts are urgently needed.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has stated that to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels — the target set in the Paris Agreement — global carbon dioxide emissions must fall by roughly 45 per cent from 2010 levels by 2030, reaching net zero around mid-century.

According to the IPCC, the energy sector remains the largest source of global emissions, and rapid decarbonisation — especially through reductions in coal use — is critical.

While India’s per capita emissions remain well below the global average, the country’s role in shaping the future emissions trajectory is increasingly significant given its size, development pace, and energy demand.