Is India jettisoning its climate goals?

The world leaders’ summit that opens COP climate conferences is a political spotlight moment. And when the attendance of heads of state is as low as reported at Belém, Brazil, on 11–12 November (50 or less out of 198), you wonder how serious world leaders are about the climate crisis.

Among the most conspicuous absentees at COP30 are Donald Trump, Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi. But there is still a difference between Modi’s non-appearance and Xi’s or Trump’s — all leaders of large countries, all among the world’s biggest polluters.

Despite Xi’s absence, China is the toast of COP30 for becoming a global leader in renewable energy, achieving its wind and solar power targets ahead of its 2030 commitment. It is also spearheading adoption of electric cars. Trump, on the other hand, pulled out of the Paris Agreement, has rolled back many environmental restraints at home, has promoted ‘clean coal’, and will be remembered for his ‘drill, baby, drill’ exhortations.

Modi has been in power since 2014. He inherited India’s commitments in Kyoto (1997) and Copenhagen (2009) to save the environment, and he signed India up for the 2015 Paris treaty. Under him, India has pledged net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2070 and to meet 50 per cent of its energy needs from non-fossil fuel sources by 2030.

India is on course to miss the second goal. Year 2024 was the hottest recorded in India. And for a quick test of India’s commitment to climate goals, look no farther than the AQI (Air Quality Index) readings of capital city Delhi.

For whatever it’s worth, India’s environment minister Bhupender Yadav will possibly show up in Belém, but climate commitments aside, Modi’s decision to skip the summit and not stand by Brazil, a BRICS ally, is being seen in diplomatic circles as a move to appease Trump. (Readers will remember that Brazil, like India, is at the receiving end of Trump’s tariff bullying.)

Even as he tries to make nice with Trump from afar, Modi has been shying away from multilaterals to avoid meeting Trump. He pulled out of the ASEAN summit in October at a juncture when deeper engagement with the economically thriving bloc is essential for India to tackle headwinds from the US.

Trump has not hesitated to embarrass Modi with repeated assertions about his mediating role in stopping the military confrontation with Pakistan in May. And Modi is likely scared that Trump will do this — again — at an international forum when/if both are present. Concurrently, Trump has dined and feted Pakistan’s army chief and prime minister. And at a multilateral featuring all three, Trump might well spring a surprise that Modi does not want to risk.

Trump knows he can’t bully Russia and China and has chosen to target the other three nations — India, Brazil, South Africa — in the BRICS grouping he despises. He has declared that no US official will attend the upcoming G20 summit in Johannesburg on 22–23 November. Trump wants BRICS disbanded and any de-dollarisation talk raises his hackles. His announcement to stay away from the G20 summit in South Africa could be a cue for Modi to emerge from hiding and show his face.

Ironically, Modi craves the company of foreign leaders; he loves the photo-ops. He won’t give up the opportunity unless he fears getting a red face. So, if Modi is not certain he won’t be embarrassed in front of the cameras — which no US administration official can guarantee about their loose-cannon boss — he might avoid multilaterals where Trump is present.

Trump is not a fan of big groupings for other reasons and has shown a tendency to prefer bilaterals. Two summits are being lined up with Xi over the next year while the Quad alliance — of the US, Japan, India and Australia — seems to have gone into cold storage. India was supposed to host the next Quad consultation featuring the heads of state, but it seems Modi is in no hurry to host a summit that will bring him face to face with Trump.

Ashis Ray can be found on X @ashiscray. More of his writing can be found here