Global credit rating agency Standard and Poor's (S&P) has lowered the growth forecasts for India
The new forecast reduced the growth to 5.2 per cent from the earlier 5.7 per cent.
According to S&P, the recovery depends, most of all, on progress in containing Coronavirus spread.
"Even if major progress is made during the second quarter, after a sustained period ...
of stressed cash flow many firms will be in no position to resume investing quickly.
Households that have either lost their jobs or have worked fewer hours will spend less.
Banks will be busy managing the deterioration in asset quality. There will be
pent-up demand but the longer the crisis drags on, the weaker it will be," S&P said.
According to S&P, by recession, it means at least two quarters of well below-trend ...
....growth sufficient to trigger rising unemployment.
The estimate of permanent income losses is likely to at least double to more than $400 billion
February data confirm a huge shock to activity in the first quarter.
External shocks from the fallout of global viral spread add a new dimension.
The amplifier of the real economic shocks has taken an outsized role.
This could tip an economic recession into financial stress, said S&P.
The countries most vulnerable to capital outflows are India, Indonesia, and the Philippines