A cliffhanger in Kerala: the electoral battle is closer than thought of earlier

While TV channels and opinion polls have been busy predicting a comfortable win for the LDF in Kerala, a week before polling day on April 6 the race appears to be closer and tighter than ever. In several parts of the state, it is true, anti-incumbency sentiments are not strong. But in several other parts the unhappiness with the LDF is manifest. Last minute campaigning and booth management might tilt the balance in a close race is what the pundits in the state are ready to hazard.

The LDF had registered an impressive victory in the local body election in December. But a string of scandals and charges of corruption since then have made the LDF look shaky. Disclosures on the deepsea trawling contract to US-based EMCC International, sale of private health data to another US-based tech firm Sprinklr, the Life Mission housing scam, dollar and gold smuggling scam, and the double voter or electoral roll controversy are some of the scandals which have been in the headlines.


Added to this were allegations of a BJPLDF deal over seats made by an RSS ideologue and controversies over the state government’s role in Sabarimala temple issue. The latest controversy were allegations that the state government had held back food kits, meant for distribution last year, and began distributing them just ahead of the election. The chief minister’s alibi that corruption, if any, lay at the doors of the bureaucracy and not the political leadership failed to cut much ice. Disclosures that he was actually aware of the trawler deal also dented his image and cast a cloud over good governance.

The Congress manifestoes are increasingly better thought out. This time too the manifesto stood out due to the promise of ‘Zero Bill’ hospitals, gender equality and direct connectivity to business hubs. Campaigns by Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, both attacking the Left and the LDF government, and their road shows also seemed to have infused energy into the UDF campaign.

Some voters seem revolted at the LDF taking a communal line and attacking Muslims and Christians. Loose remarks by a former Left MP taking a swipe at Rahul Gandhi’s visit to a women’s college also came in for flak on social media. In God’s own country, in liberated and progressive Kerala, such behaviour was found unacceptable from the Left.

In Northern Kerala, Kasargode and Kannur have 16 Assembly seats, of which 10 have been Left strongholds for years. Of the seven seats in Wayanad, UDF expects to wrest a few of them back from the LDF. Out of the 29 Assembly constituencies in Kozhikode and Malappuram, 20 appear to support the UDF.

In Central Kerala (Palakkad, Thrissur, Eranakulam, Idukki) and South Kerala (Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Alappuzha, Pathanamthitta, Kottayam) districts, the picture remains hazy. With the entry of BJP’s E Sreedharan in Palakkad, Brahmin voters seem to be in favour of the BJP. In Thrissur with 13 Assembly seats, the UDF’s poll promise of paying Rs 2,000 to home makers between the age of 40 and 60 seemed to be popular talking points among poorer women.

Ernakulam and Idukki are where UDF is hoping to gain the most to make up for losses in north Kerala. But with Kerala Congress (Mani) faction having switched its loyalties from UDF to LDF last year, poll dynamics are different and uncertain. LDF had gained in the panchayat polls but nobody is certain how this will play out in the assembly.

KC(M) chairperson Jose Mani’s attempts to turn Christians and Muslims against each other have put off both Catholic Bishops and voters. Recent clashes between KC(M) and CPI(M) workers too have not gone unnoticed.

Along the coastal belt, in Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam and Alappuzha districts, the consensus appears to be emerging in favour of the UDF after the deep-sea fishing contract controversy. In the mainland however the UDF is finding it tough.

It is a waveless election with neither side enjoying a significant edge. The polling day might provide more clues.