Battle for UP: Analysts predict poll reverses for BJP at constituencies in Prayagraj, Kaushambi

A moderate turnout was reported from the 12 assembly seats of Prayagraj and 3 seats in adjoining Kaushambi district which went to polls on Sunday in the fifth phase of the ongoing Uttar Pradesh assembly elections.

The fate of several ruling Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) bigwigs including UP deputy chief minister Keshav Prasad Maurya and cabinet ministers Siddharth Nath Singh and Nand Gopal Gupta Nandi now hangs in the balance.

Gauging from the mood of voters and the overall voting pattern in the district, the contest turned into a straight fight between the BJP and its main challenger Samajwadi Party in 11 out of the 12 assembly seats of the city.

The lone exception is the Prayagraj North assembly seat where BJP candidate and sitting MLA Hatshvardhan Bajpayee has been locked in a tough fight with Congress candidate and four times MLA from the seat Anugrah Narayan Singh.

However, what is giving jitters to the BJP are reports from several quarters that Keshav Prasad Maurya and Siddharth Nath Singh may lose the polls in the face of a stiff challenge from opposition candidates.

Maurya's rival and leader of Apna Dal (Krishna Patel faction) Pallavi Patel who is fighting on a Samajwadi Party (SP) symbol is said to have attracted a sizable chunk of farmers’ votes, say poll observers.

Apart from traditional Muslim and Yadav vote bank of SP, Pallavi Patel was supported by her own Kurmi voters who form a substantial chunk of the population.

But his supporters insist that this does not mean that Maurya is out of the race, a stance affirmed by BJP leader Devendra Nath Mishra who says that Maurya enjoys considerable goodwill in the constituency cutting across castes.

Political pundits opined that given the lackluster approach of BSP leader Mayawati in the elections, the party’s traditional votebank which includes Jatavs and Dalits has been split between the BJP and SP at Sirathu assembly seat.

Brahmin voters of the area, who in the recent past were upset over being sidelined, may also play a major role in deciding the verdict.

The other seat which became a hot topic of discussion is the Prayagraj West assembly seat which until the last few years was considered the stronghold of mafia don turned politician Atiq Ahmad. The seat was never won by BJP for over 28 years until BJP candidate and cabinet minister Siddharth Nath Singh won it in 2017.

This time, he is facing a stiff challenge from SP candidate and former Allahabad University students’ union president Richa Singh whose candidature was cleared at the last moment. The SP candidate, who has been working relentlessly for the last 5 years in the area, has pocketed a sizable number of votes, say locals.

Moreover, the heavy turnout of Muslim voters in both the West and South assembly seats has upset the ruling party. A local resident Ashraf Jamal said that West may see a major upset on the day of counting.

The disenchantment of urban voters with the election process was reflected in the poor turnout in the city’s North assembly constituency which is considered the intellectual hub of the city. The seat recorded a dismal 39.56 % voting. This is contrast to 51.20% and 47.05% in city West and South seats.

The overall voting percentage was 52.21% which was 2 percent less than what it was in 2017. Phoolpur assembly seat recorded the maximum 60 percent of voting while city North registered the minimum at 39.56 %.

Apart from the 3 seats in the city, the other 9 seats in the rural areas which went to polls on Sunday were Phoolpur, Pratappur, Handia, Soraon, Phaphamau, Karchana, Koraon, Bara and Meja.

In 2017, BJP had won 9 out of the 12 seats while 2 went to BSP and 1 to SP.