BJP’s chances to win Ladakh look bleak

The campaigns of various political parties have warmed the cold environs of Ladkah like the bright spring sun. The Ladakh Lok Sabha constituency, spread over four Assembly segments, goes to polls on May 6. The four candidates who are fighting here include Congress’ Rigzin Spalbar, the BJP’s Jamying Tsering Namgayal, Independent candidates Asgar Ali Karbalai and Sajad Kargili.

The two main regional political parties, National Conference and People’s Democratic Party, did not field their candidates and decided to extend support to Sajad Kargili.

While the region will witness a four-cornered contest, the Congress candidate seems already a step ahead of its opponents. The odds of the BJP of winning the seat are relatively much less.

In 2014, BJP’s candidate Thupstan Chewang had won the seat. However, he resigned in November, 2018. He also gave up his membership of the party.

Chewang resigned after the BJP government failed to fullfil its poll promises made to the people of Ladakah. According Ladakh the status of Union Territory was one of the BJP’s central poll planks in the region during the last Lok Sabha elections.

“Thupstan’s exit from the BJP was a huge setback for the party,” says an political observer who does not wish to be named.

During the 2018 municipal polls, the BJP suffered drubbing in both Leh and Kargil districts. In both districts, Congress and independent candidates swept the polls. The BJP that was much strong in the Buddhist-dominated Leh failed to even get a single seat. The humiliating defeat forced Dorjey Motup to resign from the position of Chief Executive Councillor of Ladakh Autonomous Hill Development Council (LAHDC), Leh.

In 2017, BJP faced its first defeat when it lost its Thiksay constituency to Congress during the by-polls of LAHDC. The constituency was held by the BJP since 1995.

“The recent defeats of the BJP in Leh foretells its poor performance in the upcoming election, giving a direct edge to Congress,” said the observer.

So, what are the backgrounds of the candidates in the fray? Congress candidate Rigzin Spalbar is the former Chief Executive Councillor of LAHDC, Leh. Spalbar, a Delhi University graduate, has strong influence in Leh while the party has a good voter base in some pockets of the Shia-dominated Kargil.

BJP’s candidate Jamying Tsering Namagyal (33) is the current Chief Executive Councillor of the LAHDC, Leh. His vote bank is limited to Leh district only.

Independent candidate Asghar Ali Karbali over the years has emerged as a tall political figure on the political landscape of Ladakh. Karbali, a former Congress party lawmaker, has also served twice as the CEC of LAHDC, Kargil. He is supported by the influential Imam Khomieni Memorial Trust. Another independent candidate, Sajad Kargili, a journalist and activist, is supported by both National Conference and PDP. Young Kargili is a new entrant in politics and he enjoys the support of the influential Islamic School, Kargil. A total number of 1,56,888 voters will exercise their franchise on May 6.