BJP’s internal survey predicts a rout in west UP

Three days before the first phase of polling in Uttar Pradesh, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) seems to be nervous as a senior party leader claims BJP will suffer a heavy loss in western Uttar Pradesh, particularly after Sanyukt Kisan Morcha (SKM) issued an appeal asking farmers to punish BJP.

“After Prime Minister Narendra Modi withdrew the three farm laws, there was a bit of relief for the party. We were confident that the party would be able to manage the voters. We were expecting a marginal loss as compared to last elections, but after the SKM appeal it is clear that BJP will suffer a massive loss in western UP,” a senior BJP leader told this reporter.

The first phase of polling is on February 10 and will cover western UP where SKM holds a good sway. This is the area that had witnessed the worst impact of the anti-farm bills agitation where the farmers even chased away BJP leaders.

The BJP leader claims that an internal survey of the party shows that it will win 30-33 seats in western UP, where elections will be held in the first two phases. In the first phase, the election will be held on 58 seats while in the second phase election will be held on 59 seats. In the last assembly election, the BJP had swept the area getting over 46% of the vote share and won 98 seats out of 117.

In 2017, the SP and the RLD had modest vote shares of 13% and 7% respectively. Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), on the other hand, had obtained 22% of the votes.

The internal survey has shocked the BJP because this was carried out before the SKM had issued an appeal. The appeal is likely to further hit the BJP and the gainer would be the RLD and SP alliance. BJP’s survey says that even BSP will do better.

All this is happening despite the BJP's attempt at raising communal temper in the region. It has raised the issue from Jinnah to Pakistan, and from Kabristan to Kashi Vishwanath Dham. The party also called people wearing red caps (Samajwadi Party workers) as goondas. Even as Union Home Minister Amit Shah carried out the padyatra, Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath addressed small rallies, Defence Minister Rajnath held meetings and J P Nadda addressed people in various regions of western UP, the party is facing a rout.

Realising the pathetic situation of the party, the BJP is now relying on Prime Minister Narendra Modi for infusing new life in the party and the voters. “The PM had organised some virtual rallies but his first physical rally in Bijnor on February 7 might extend new life in the party,” the leader said.