Economic Survey panned by Tweeple as shoddy, lacking data
‘Have never seen an Economic Survey in 33 years as a journalist with such scant disregard for data, data sources and such a heavy focus on spurious correlations,’ a user posted
The Economic Survey of India 2019-2020, which was released by the government on Friday, a day before the annual Union Budget is presented in Parliament, has been panned by a number of people, who took to popular microblogging platform Twitter to express their disappointment with it.
Some of these are reproduced here:
The economic survey is shoddy, lacking data and mediocre completely reflective of the Modi government’s pathetic handling of the economy. The budget is likely to be even more disappointing.
Not surprising, but I have NEVER ever seen an Economic Survey in 33 years as a journalist with such scant disregard for data, data sources, authenticating sources and such a heavy focus on spurious correlations. But we are a Data-Mukt Bharat now!
Dr YV Reddy, the former RBI Governor, when he was RBI Governor used to say, "everywhere around the world, the future is uncertain; in India, even the past is uncertain." The revision of GDP data today proved just that... Read on.
In 2018-19, the real GDP (adjusted for inflation) was expected to be ₹140.78 lakh crore. Today, it has been revised to ₹ 139.81 lakh crore.
As a result, the GDP growth in 2018-19 has fallen to 6.1% against the 6.8% forecast earlier. As Dr Reddy said, even the past is uncertain.
That bit above is obvious. Here is something that is not so obvious. Up until now, the GDP growth in 2019-20 was supposed to be at 5% (actually 4.98% to be very precise). Now the GDP growth in 2019-20 is expected to be at 5.7%. How? See the next tweet.
Earlier, the GDP in 2018-19 was expected to be at ₹140.78 lakh crore. The GDP in 2019-20 is forecast at ₹147.78 lakh crore. This meant a GDP growth of 5%.
The GDP for 2018-19 has been revised to ₹ 139.81 lakh crore. The GDP for 2019-20 is forecast at ₹147.78 lakh crore. This means a GDP growth of 5.7%.
So what is happening here? The past has changed and it has now changed the present and the future. That's how economics happens in India. That's how bad our data is.`
Suddenly an economy which was supposed to grow at 5% in 2019-20, is now expected to grow at 5.7%. You change the past and you end up changing the future. Happens only in economics... Don't try it anywhere else.
Now that the Indian economy is expected to grow at 5.7% and not 5% in 2019-20, will we see the likes of World Bank, IMF, OECD, investment banks and stock brokerages, revise their growth projections?
Swaraj Abhiman’s Yogendra Yadav posted:
Disappointed with Agriculture and Food Management Chapter in #EconomicSurvey Vol II. Reports only those datasets, years, schemes that suit the govt. Reads more like Agri Min Annual Report. Little analysis, reporting of challenges, reflection on failures or strategic thinking
* MSP: no data on how many farmers received it
* PMFBY: no data on declining coverage or participation of private insurers
* PM Kisan: no info on how many farmers received beyond first instalment
* Agri exports: no data for boom years pre 2015-16
How I miss @arvindsubraman