Gujarat Files: A potboiler in Gujarat

Even as the Congress was brainstorming in Udaipur, BJP was busy holding its own ‘Chintan Shivir’ in Gujarat. Contrary to popular belief, it is not a cake walk for the BJP in the state. BJP’s seats have been actually declining in the Assembly ever since Narendra Modi helped BJP win 127 seats in the 2002 elections- held in the shadow of the communal riots. In 2007, the BJP bagged 117 seats, 115 seats in 2012 and 99 in 2017. Congress which won 51 seats in 2002,bagged 59 in 2007,61 seats in 2012 and 77 seats in 2017.

This explains why, despite ruling over Gujarat for almost the last 27 years, BJP’s penchant for reaching out to Congress leaders, poach them, browbeat or bulldoze them has remained as strong. Last week it ‘pinched’ a three term Congress legislator from the reserved tribal seat of Khedbrahma in Sabarkantha district, Ashwin Kotwal, who claimed he has been a Modi-Bhakt since 2007.

Thirteen Congress legislators switched sides even before the last election in 2017. And when, despite Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s boast of bagging a record 150 seats,the party’s tally fell below 100 for the first time, with the Congress bagging 77 seats to the BJP’s 99 in a house of 182, BJP raised its strength to 112 with reduced the Congress down to 65 through defections and deceit.

But even when after former chief minister Vijay Rupani and his entire cabinet were replaced overnight with a brand, new team led by Bhupendrabhai Patel in September last year, BJP could not ignore the defectors from Congress. If there were five turncoats from the Congress in the Rupani government,the Patel government included three new ones. The five earlier turncoats also went out with Rupani.

Sensing the unrest and resentment among old BJP loyalists, the new state president C.R.Patilsignificantly stated that BJP did not need the Congress to win elections. But the poaching continues.

Aam Admi Party (AAP) which is aggressively peddling its mix of of ‘Hindutva’ and freebies is threatening to cut into the BJP vote bank in urban areas. While Congress is stronger in rural areas and nowhere in urban Gujarat, triangular contests can throw up strange results. Even as Hardik Patel quit the Congress and is expected to join the BJP, BJP leaders are more busy engaging AAP in a slanging match, calling Arvind Kejriwal a ’Maha Thug’ and a Khalistan sympathizer. Kejriwal in turn has been mocking Patil an outsider from Maharashtra. AAP’s tieup with ChottuVasava led Bharat Tribal Party(BTP) has also strengthened suspicions that AAP is targeting the Congress in the state.

Meanwhile, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi held out the ‘Amul ‘ model of development as his party’s road map for Gujarat. He flagged off a Congress Adivasi satyagraha from the predominantly tribal town of Dahod on May 10 asking them to cut through caste clutter. “The fight for rights has to be fought and won”, he declared. A day later, addressing a rally in Rajkot Kejriwal promised free government education, free medi-care, free electricity and a free trip to the Ram temple for senior citizens. Rail Land Development Authority’s (RLDA) vice-chairman, V.P. Dudeja announced a Rs 134 crore upgrade of the railway station that caters to the Somnath temple tourist traffic. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is the chairman of the Somnath temple trust.

The tribal belt of Gujarat stretching from the temple town of Ambaji in the north to Umbergaon in the southern part of the state flanks Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra.It accounts for 40 VidhanSabha seats. There are 27 Scheduled Tribe reserved seats in the state.

BJP, awake to the possibility of losing some seats to AAP, is planning to make up elsewhere. Kotwal’s entry and possibly Hardik’s is part of that strategy. The Union Government has been urged to stall ParTapi Narmada river linking project, opposed by tribals.

In 2017 AAP contested 30 seats and lost them all. This year it boasts it would win 58 seats in Gujarat. In the bi-polar politics of Gujarat, third parties have had a dismal record. Shankersinh Vaghela formed the Rashtriya Janta Party with support of the Congress but fared poorly in the election before merging into the Congress. BJP veteran Keshubhai Patel formedGujarat Parivartan Party(GPP) in 2012 but came a cropper before merging into the BJP. Jan Vikalp,another of Vaghela’s efforts proved a non-starter. Kisan Mazdoor Lok Pakshaformed by Chimanbhai Patel also failed to gain much support. Can AAP break the jinx?

(This was first published in National Herald on Sunday)