Poll of polls: With the Hindi heartland slipping away from BJP, beginning of the end of Modi looms
The exit polls of the Assembly elections in five states has given mixed indications, but it clearly shows that the ‘BJP wave’ is fading away
The exit polls of the Assembly elections in five states has given mixed indications, but it clearly shows that there is a major fall in BJP’s vote share. The loss of 8 to 9% votes in the three Hindi-speaking states can impact the 2019 election results and it will destroy the BJP’s arrogance and as well as self-confidence.
Polling in five states is over, now we have to wait for the counting of votes on December 11. In the meantime, like every election, the exit polls of all news channels have also come out. The news channels have come out with a result as per their orientation. But one thing that is clear from the exit polls of all the news channels is that the downfall of the biggest political party in the world (as claimed) is inevitable. And the deep impact of this downfall will be definitely visible in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections next year.
The journalist friends who have been watching the elections closely for last several years have made the situation very clear. They believe that technically elections may have taken place in five states, but the real elections were held in three states only. And these three states are the Hindi-speaking Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan. A journalist friend, who is an anchor in a national news channel and has witnessed the reactions of leaders of all the parties, said BJP spokespersons, who have been aggressive on various issues, were seen to be defensive during exit poll discussions.
We need to first understand why the elections in these three states matter most. In the last Lok Sabha elections in 2014, the BJP won 62 out of the total of 65 Lok Sabha seats in these three states. In Rajasthan, all the 25 seats went to BJP, while in Madhya Pradesh it got 29 seats and Chhattisgarh 10.
A mixed picture has emerged from all the exit polls, and there are indications that when the votes are counted on December 11, the BJP may not receive good news from Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh.
In Uttarakhand, the condition looks very grim, while in Punjab the BJP had nothing of its own earlier and the defeat of its ally Akali Dal in the last assembly elections has blocked the way for BJP. One should keep in mind that even during the 2014 wave, the present Union Finance Minister Arun Jaitley was unable to register a win
So who seems to be losing and who is emerging as a winner? In the previous Lok Sabha elections in 2014, BJP had won 90% seats in the states of North India, but now the BJP is confronted with a bigger and stronger challenge. In a straight fight, the Congress is standing as an obstacle with renewed force and zeal. The arrogance and over confidence of the BJP was the beginning of their downfall. They went into the election with a clear attitude that ‘Congress is gone’.
The estimates of the exit poll may prove to be wrong, but it is clear that the Congress has stalled BJP's victory spree. Well, if one wants to know clear picture and analysis of exit poll, then the voting share should always be kept in mind. And in all three states, there is a common factor in all exit polls, and that is the fall in BJP's vote share. In Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh, BJP seems to be losing 8 to 9% of the votes. This loss of BJP votes has swung directly towards the Congress, it defines the resurgence of Congress and the downfall of BJP.
Now, if we roughly evaluate the upcoming Lok Sabha elections in the wake of these exit polls in these three states without any prejudice, it seems that half of these 62 seats will slip out of the hands of the BJP.
If we look at other Hindi-speaking states, it seems impossible if Uttar Pradesh will be able to repeat 2014 in the favor of the BJP. Uttar Pradesh is considered to be the most important on the way to the Centre.
The Union Home Minister and the BJP president during the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, Rajnath Singh himself has admitted in a TV interview that they will lose 15-20 seats in the next Lok Sabha elections. In Bihar, the neighbouring state of UP, where JD (U) is in coalition with BJP, after betraying the grand alliance, some recent incidents indicate that the rift between the two parties is widening. Last time, BJP won 22 seat of the 40 seats in Bihar, but this time, it has already accepted defeat in five seats as it has decided to contest the elections on only 17 seats.
Now if we go to Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh in the north. The situation in these states looks similar to MP, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. In Uttarakhand, the condition looks very bad, while in Punjab the BJP won nothing of its own and the defeat of its ally Akali Dal in the last assembly elections has blocked the way for BJP. One should keep in mind that even during the 2014 wave, the current government’s finance minister Arun Jaitley was unable to register a win.
The two states of the western region, Gujarat and Maharashtra are also important. In Gujarat, barring 2014, the Congress has been winning almost half of the seats in Lok Sabha elections even when PM Modi was the chief minister of the state. Even in Maharashtra, the situation seems to be going against the BJP.
And, yes, the resentment of farmers, Dalit youths, businessmen and small and medium businessmen is yet to be considered. Therefore mitron, If the news channels are to be believed then these elections are the ‘semi-finals’ of the upcoming Lok Sabha elections, and in the semi-finals BJP's seems to be losing.