Quick Gun Murugan: Amit Shah’s southern conquest began from Chennai

Amit Shah did two things in Chennai during his visit: one totally in character, and the other out of character. After being greeted by Chief Minister Palaniswami and O Panneerselvam at the airport, his convoy stopped outside the airport and he stepped out to wave to BJP and AIADMK supporters gathered there for his visit.

With his bodyguards in tow, he walked a short distance, waving to the crowd of supporters. It was somewhat marred when a protester threw a placard over the barricade; no damage was done, but the protester was picked up for questioning by the police.

At his speech in the Kalaivanar Arangam [a grand hall often used for public functions], he apologised for being unable to speak in the local language [through a translator], and then proceeded to deliver his speech entirely in Hindi.

His visit to Chennai, as visits go, was a whistle stop tour lasting just a day, but its significance should not be underestimated. It showed that BJP was shifting into high gear well ahead of the 2021 Assembly elections in the state, the first election without the towering presence of either Jayalalithaa or the DMK’s M Karunanidhi.

The BJP apparently wants a toehold by winning as many or as few seats next year as possible. But if AIADMK loses the election, as is generally expected, and disintegrates without power, BJP is gearing up to fill the void and pose a significant challenge in 2026.

The BJP has put in what it considers a decent showing in the rural local body elections. It is now fronted by a leader of Dalit origins in L Murugan, and has roped in a young IPS officer who quit policing to join politics; it also recently welcomed into its fold, a noted follower of former DMK strongman Alagiri, MK Stalin’s estranged brother, fuelling speculation that Alagiri himself may follow.

It has now adopted the Vel [spear], the god Karthikeya/Murugan’s weapon as its own; in fact, the party wanted to take out a ‘vel yatra’ across the state to promote its brand, but was not allowed to by the AIADMK government, wary of giving free rein to its ostensible ally.

Shah’s visit to Chennai was also to motivate the BJP’s cadres; which is basically the RSS. It was no surprise that he had a late-night meeting with the RSS ideologue, S Gurumurthy, and met with local RSS leaders.

There was much speculation about him meeting the actor Rajnikanth, but that did not materialise. Many analysts said the BJP would like to have him on its side, a tokenism that could benefit it, but Rajni has not come out in the open. One of the enduring surprises is the lack of traction that Modi has in Tamil Nadu; many observers in fact have spoken of anti-Modi backlash in the state during the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, when the BJP lost all five seats it contested; its ally AIADMK also did badly.

In contrast, the DMK-Congress combine swept the elections, with Congress winning 9 of 10 seats it contested. This brings up an interesting point about the reservoir of support that the Congress still enjoys in the state.

Jayalalithaa aide Sasikala too is slated to come out of jail soon, and could roil the politics of the AIADMK should she choose to. It is not clear what role she would play; it is unlikely she would want to antagonise the BJP

Many expected the AIADMK to fall apart after Jayalalithaa’s demise; but the ruling duo of Edappadi Palaniswamy and O. Panneerselvam have shown surprising resilience in holding the party together. The AIADMK government has also functioned better than expected and there are few grievances that people harbour. So, it is not certain that AIADMK will do as poorly in 2021 as is generally expected.