UPA ahead of NDA after first four phases, suggest Intelligence reports

Ground reports from across the country and feedback collected from various agencies and sources indicate that on the 371 seats of the Lok Sabha for which polling was completed by April 29, United Progressive Alliance (UPA) is ahead of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) by at least 30 seats.

UPA’s projected tally does not include the probable number of seats bagged by prospective post-poll allies like the Telugu Desam Party (TDP), All India Trinamool Congress (AITC), Samajwadi Party (SP), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD).

While Congress spokesmen remain tight lipped, it is significant that Congress President Rahul Gandhi has been saying with increasing confidence that Narendra Modi is not going to return as Prime Minister. The desperation that is reflected in the PM’s election speeches may also be a measure of the growing panic in NDA ranks and corresponds to the feedback on the polls so far.

The feedback shows that down south, in Kerala, the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) is set to win at least 15 seats out of the total 20 in the state. In neighbouring Tamil Nadu and the Union Territory of Puducherry which together account for 40 seats, the Congress-DMK alliance with its other partners are poised for a clean sweep. In Karnataka, the Congress and Janata Dal (Secular) alliance is expected to win at least 16 seats.

Moving towards the west, the biggest setback for the NDA, after UP in the north, could come from Maharashtra, if the data and reports accessed by National Herald hold good. They show that the Congress-Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) alliance may end up winning at least 30 seats in the state. The NDA’s heaviest losses may have come in the Vidarbha region with a heavyweight candidate and a Union Minister in the Modi Cabinet slated to lose by a considerable margin.

Even in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s and BJP president Amit Shah’s home state of Gujarat, the Congress may repeat its performance in 2004 or 2009 polls by wresting more than 10 seats out of the 26 that have gone to the polls.

Coming to Chhattisgarh which has 11 Lok Sabha seats, the Congress is set to win at least 8 seats, most possibly 9.

Thirteen of Rajasthan’s 25 states went to the polls on April 29. Data from the constituencies could not be accessed by National Herald. Reports on only one constituency could be accessed. Based on those, it may be said that the biggest upset in this round may be witnessed in the Jhalawar-Baran Lok Sabha constituency. Three-time BJP MP and former Rajasthan Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje’s son Dushyant Singh is likely to lose this time if the reports hold good.

Data from Madhya Pradesh also could not be accessed by National Herald but ground reports suggest that the Congress is set to win at least three of the six seats that went to polls on April 29.

Coming to the single biggest deciding state of the Lok Sabha polls, Uttar Pradesh (UP), even if one adds the combined vote share of SP, BSP and RLD in the 2014 General Election when Modi wave had swept the country, the BJP would have ended up with just 37 seats.

The data and reports accessed by National Herald show the BJP’s tally in UP is slated to drop well below 30, in the low twenties in a best case scenario. That is a straightaway loss of about 50 seats from UP alone. The Congress’ strategy in UP was two-pronged. In seats, it sensed a chance of victory, it put up strong candidates and elsewhere it sought to help the SP-BSP-RLD alliance.

With the Congress confident of doing extremely well in Punjab and considerably well in Haryana, the BJP’s chances of narrowing the gap rests primarily in West Bengal. But data accessed by National Herald show that the BJP may have a thin chance of a win in just one of the 18 seats of West Bengal polling for which have been held. The Congress is slated for resounding victories in two seats and may pull off a fighting win in one or two more seats.

Even in Assam, where the BJP is in power, the numbers of 2014 may not change much in the BJP’s favour.

If these trends last in the last three phases of the Lok Sabha election in 2019, it truly may be shutters down for Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the NDA government that he leads when the results come out on May 23.