Western UP: Division of Muslim votes worry opposition parties

As almost all the political parties, barring BJP, have fielded Muslims, in the majority of the seats in western Uttar Pradesh, will there be another division of Muslim votes in this region?

There are three important players who are eyeing Muslim votes. These are Samajwadi Party, Bahujan Samaj Party, and the Hyderabad-based All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) led by Asaduddin Owaisi.

Indications are that Muslims have made up their mind to vote for Samajwadi Party but the emergence of Muslim candidates can impact the voting pattern. “Local Muslim leaders have their area of influence. A slight shift in the votes will have an impact on the outcome of the result,” Md Illyas, a Samajwadi Party leader in Saharanpur said.

He further said, "the BSP and AIMIM fielded Muslim candidates in various constituencies of Western Uttar Pradesh to harm Samajwadi Party. There should not be any division of Muslim votes but actually, from what we see, there is a possibility of division of Muslim votes."

“If you look at the division of Muslim votes in the context of BJP raising religious pitch leading to consolidation of Hindu votes in favour of one party, the Muslims will suffer again,” Illyas said and added that whenever the division of Muslim votes is less, more Muslim candidates win elections.

To buttress his point, he recalled that in the 2012 elections when Muslims voted enmass in favour of the Samajwadi Party, 68 Muslim lawmakers were elected and in 2017 elections, this number fell to 23, mainly because of the division of votes.

Saharanpur has 41.95 per cent Muslims, and 21 per cent Dalits, and in 2012, four out of seven seats here were won by the Bahujan Samaj Party, one by the BJP, one by the Congress, and one by the SP. “In 2017, because of Hindu polarisation, the BJP won four seats, including Deoband, with two going to the Congress, and one to the SP,” he said.

Political pundits believe that with political parties fielding Muslim candidates, the division of Muslim votes is imminent. Take the case of the Behta assembly constituency where BSP has fielded Rayes Malik while the SP-RLD alliance have fielded Umar Malik Khan. The AIMIM has named Amzad Ali as its candidate. Similarly in Dhaulana's seat, BSP has fielded Wasim Pradhan, SP-RLD Aslam Ali, and AIMIM Haji Aarif as candidates for respective parties.

In Siwalkhas, BSP has given tickets to Mukarram Ali, SP-RLD alliance to Gulam Mohammad, and AIMIM to Rafat Khan.

In some seats, BSP and SP-RLD have fielded Muslim candidates. Like in Nazibabad BSP has fielded Shanawaz Alam while SP has named Taslim Ahmad as its candidate. In the Thakurdwara constituency, BSP’s candidate is Mujahid Ali while SP has fielded Nawabjaan. In Chamrauwa BSP has named Abdul Musataf Hussain as a candidate while Nasir Ahmad is a BSP candidate. Md Naved Ayaz is a BSP candidate from Amroha while SP has fielded Mehboob Ali. In Meerut west, BSP’s candidate is Dilshad Ali while SP has fielded Md Adil.

Similar contests between Muslim candidates are possible in Kol, Aligarh, Moradabad (city), Moradabad (rural), Nakud, Kundarki and Loni assembly constituencies.

The records of the election commission show that there are 70 constituencies where the Muslim population is between 20 and 30 per cent, while 43 seats have more than 30 per cent Muslims. There are 36 seats where Muslim candidates win elections and in 107 seats Muslim votes are significant in deciding the poll results. Besides, there are 143 seats where Muslims have an impact on hustings.