Will Mamata Banerjee lose the Nandigram seat? No. Here is why the BJP will bite the dust there

Rumours are rife since yesterday, thanks largely to the paid media, that Didi is losing in Nandigram. But that is highly unlikely for a plethora of reasons. Here are some of them

 Mamata Banerjee (File Photo)
Mamata Banerjee (File Photo)
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Vishwadeepak

Speculations are rife since Thursday that West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee is going to lose the battle against her former protégé Suvendu Adhikari on the Nandigram Assembly seat.

While most political analysists are acknowledging that BJP has thrown in all its might on the seat, they underline that Mamata is not a push over. It is the so-called national media, which is called Godi media in non-BJP circles, that is crying hoarse that it is “khela shesh” for Banerjee.

Indeed, the BJP has thrown in so much money in the elections which is not possible for any other party to match. The BJP also has the entire central machinery at its beck and call. In fact, questions are being raised over the conduct of Election Commission of India (ECI) of late. Some of the steps the EC has taken such as the eleventh-hour tweak in the rules to allow non-residents to become polling agents have done no good to its reputation.

Will Mamata Banerjee lose the Nandigram seat? No. Here is why the BJP will bite the dust there

The drama that unfolded at Boyal in Nandigram on Thursday betrays the intensity of the battle. Banerjee visited the place after Trinamool leaders alleged booth capture and rigging by BJP workers. The BJP and TMC workers came face to face upon her arrival. The Chief Minister had to seek help from Governor Jagdeep Dhankar to bring the highly volatile situation under control.

Later she said that the TMC had lodged as many as 63 poll-related complaints since morning, but the EC took no action on them.

The TMC also alleged that Union Home Minister Amit Shah was directly commanding the central paramilitary forces deployed in the area.

So Didi had a tough day in Nandigram on Thursday.

Will Mamata Banerjee lose the Nandigram seat? No. Here is why the BJP will bite the dust there

The BJP’s alleged interference in the poll process apart, the Adhikari family too does have a clout in the area and Suvendu Adhikari must be having a considerable chunk of voters who are loyal to him, not to his party.

In comparison, Mamata Banerjee too has some positive son her side. Neutral observers say that people on the ground acknowledge her work and various welfare schemes she has launched. Many of those reporting from the ground said that women have voted for the chief minister in large numbers.

Nandigram has over 25 per cent Muslim population. It is anybody’s guess who would they vote for in such a highly polarised election. The Congress-Left are said to have deliberately given room to Mamata Banerjee on this seat by not fervidly contesting the poll.

Data shows that among the 271 polling booths in 2016 Assembly polls, Trinamool had bagged more than 40 per cent votes in 270 polling booths. This dominance did change a little with the saffron surge in 2019 Lok Sabha polls but the overall picture remained unchanged.

Suvendu Adhikari, who was Didi’s lieutenant till the other day, has never lost in Nandigram. He must have nurtured loyalties over the last 10 years in the region. The rest he could buy with the maddening amount of money that his

newly found love BJP is said to have pumped into Bengal in general and Nandigram in particular.

However, there is a section of voters that is seeing him as a betrayer. Banerjee tried to convey this in her poll rallies that Adhikari was a “Mir Jafar”, a trusted military commander of Bengal’s Nawab Siraj ud-Daulah who betrayed the Nawab during the famous Battle of Plassey in 1757. Siraj ud-Daulah’s defeat is considered a major turning point. Subsequently Mir Jafar became synonymous with betrayal in common parlance.

Banerjee did tell the voters to not go with a deserter. There are no reasons to believe that a number of people would not give heed to this plea. They see Banerjee as a victim of betrayal at the hands of her own commander.

Then Adhikari joining the BJP of all parties has not gone down well with many people. Bengalis in general are not very fond of being heckled with “Jai Shri Ram” slogans. They usually like the syncretic Durga Pooja culture where Muslims take part in the celebrations along with the Hindus. The Bengali identity overlaps over the religious identity.

A Muslim youth who voted for Adhikari in last election taunted, “When he was with the TMC, he considered us as deshbhakt. Since he has joined BJP, we became deshdrohi for him.”

Mamata Banerjee’s connect with the people cannot be undermined. A Kolkata based journalist who worked with Jansatta and Sanmarg for decades told NH, “Predecessors of Mamata were ideologues, intellectuals…In comparison with them Mamata is nothing. But the connect that she has with the people is unparalleled. In people’s opinion, she is a mass leader, representing Bengali identity which is under attack by the Gujarati invaders.”

The results will be out on May 2. Till then, the paid media may push all sorts of unfounded speculations. But those who have an ear on the ground assert that Didi is going to form the next government in Bengal.

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Published: 02 Apr 2021, 11:35 AM