Assassination of Iranian nuclear scientist not ‘an act of terror’ ?

I n 2008, when Barack Obama was still a few weeks away from being ushered in as the next US President, Israel launched the Operation Cast Lead as it did not know if the incoming administration would give them levity that the outgoing Bush Administration did. Although those fears remained unfounded as Obama failed to rein in Israel in any meaningful way from acting as a rogue nation.

12 years hence, we are at the same juncture again. Israel learnt two important lessons 12 years ago, namely, ‘transition periods are a great opportunity’ and ‘whoever sits in the White House is not far from the irongrip of Israeli lobbies at the Beltway’; it therefore decided to assassinate one of the top nuclear scientists of Iran.

Mohsen Fakhrizadeh was assassinated outside Tehran in what would be a hit on as many as five Iranian nuclear scientists in the last decade and a half. The reaction inside Iran is predictable. While Rouhani administration—thoroughly discredited among the domestic audience because of his inability to secure either economic or physical security for Iranians— mouthed usual platitudes, the opposition took the step to upend his now hollow sounding plea of strategic patience. The Iranian Majlis—currently controlled by the opposition by a landslide—passed several binding measures pressurising President Rouhani to take some concrete steps.

The measures include enriching Uranium to 20 per cent purity, restricting the access of IAEA inspectors among others. On the face of it, these measures appear to be targeted against Rouhani; it does have other purposes as well. The decision to enrich uranium at 20 per cent purity is targeted towards European partners of the JCPOA, namely France, Germany and the UK.

In what can only be termed as a baffling level of cowardice, the EU, while calling the act of assassination as “criminal,” avoided naming Israel. Also, the choice of the word “Criminal Act” instead of “Terrorist Act” betrays the hypocrisy. If the EU showed its utmost hypocrisy, the UK went even further and used meaningless phrases like “concerned about the incident inside Iran,” instead of taking a firm position. The Parliamentary measure has now put the Europeans on notice. It is a clear message that unless they act swiftly, JCPOA is toast.

What can Europeans do about it is an open-ended question, however, especially because it depends on what the Biden Administration does. Sources say that officials of the upcoming administration had already opened the back-channels with the Europeans; however, this assassination changes many things. This assassination was ordered by Israel precisely to make it difficult for the Biden Administration to re-join the nuclear deal. Like in the past, the Democrats will huff and puff here and there but will avoid rebuking Israel lest their career is doomed.

What does this leave Iran with? Frankly, Rouhani Administration has proved to be an abject failure. It went against conventional wisdom and trusted the United States and has been left holding the can. The economic situation in Iran has worsened and he has severely undermined the deterrence as well. Israel and the United States have committed rogue acts and have not been paid back in kind.

This has emboldened Tel Aviv to continuously hit Iranian interests inside Syria as well as in Iran without worrying about consequences. This becomes especially embarrassing when you figure out that Hezbollah, a much smaller group, has time and again forced Israel to act coy. It has always paid back Israel in kind and this has kept the deterrence intact.

Four months ago, Israelis hit a convoy in Syria killing one Hezbollah fighter. Fearing retaliation, it has pulled back soldiers from the Lebanese border. It is four months and those soldiers are not back at their post. Why? Because they know the Hezbollah will deliver on the promise. Meanwhile, Israelis are scared to hit Hezbollah convoy coming from Syria into Lebanon leaving the nationalist militia free to replenish their arsenal. This is how deterrence is established.

The pressure created by Iranian Majlis will now try to reverse the harm done by the Rouhani Administration. While Iran will avoid handing Trump Administration any excuse to start a wider war, sources say that a range of military options is on the table now. These retaliatory measures will include help from the ‘Axis of Resistance’ allies in the Middle East including Ansarallah in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Islamic Jihad and Hamas in Occupied Palestine.

Sources also confirm that the leadership of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps is also livid with Rouhani Administration and is desperately hoping that the coming Presidential Elections in June will bring the opposition— Principlists—to power who would be more sympathetic to the demands of the security apparatus and more effective in dealing with the challenges.

The upcoming elections in June are going to be significantly uphill for the Moderates and the Reformists than any time in the last decade. It appears that a section of Principlists will throw their weight behind Hossein Dehghan who served in the Rouhani Administration till 2017 and had started his career with IRGC. While other heavyweight Principlists like Ali Larijani are also toying with the idea of running for the office, it is now understood that barring any last-minute upheaval, Hossein Dehghan will give everyone a run for their money.

In Washington, meanwhile, Biden will have a tough time saving and joining back JCPOA. He will be under tremendous pressure to expand the scope of the deal and bring in Iranian Ballistic Missile program in the ambit. That will not be allowed. Even Reformists, who generally show little courage, will baulk on such an idea. Any talk about curbing the missile program reminds Iranians of the painful days of Iraq-Iran War when none of the countries was willing to sell even one missile to the Iranians while Saddam Hussain’s Scud rained over them.

And if that was not enough, as mentioned above, the assassination of Fakhrizadeh has further poisoned the well for Biden.

However, if you expect the new administration to clamp down on the rogue behaviour of Israel, don’t hold your breath.