Did the US strike serve Netanyahu?

Rules and rational behaviour having taken a back seat in international diplomacy, it is difficult to make sense of the chaotic aftermath of the US joining Israel’s war against Iran. The US President appears to be still keen to strike a deal with Tehran.

On Saturday he conveyed his readiness to travel to Turkey and meet Iran’s supreme leader. Hours after the US bombed the three nuclear facilities in Iran, he seemed to indicate that he was content for now and was looking forward to negotiations on a nuclear deal and rule out any ‘regime change’ for the time being.

This does not square with Israel’s goal. It launched the unprovoked attack on Iran on 13 June precisely to prevent Iran and the US reach a deal. It has openly called for the assassination of Ali Khamenei to ‘end’ the war, which ironically it started.

Experts have been debating for weeks whether Israel wanted a regime-change in Tehran or the collapse of the regime in Iran. In either case it aimed to have total domination in the region with no other country allowed to have a nuclear weapon.

The three European powers, namely the United Kingdom, Germany and France have further queered the pitch by not condemning the unilateral attack on Iran. The E3 countries in fact conveyed that Iran should give up its uranium enrichment programme altogether and ‘return’ to the table. This Iran quite naturally finds unacceptable. It has said that it is ready to negotiate and reach a deal on the level of the uranium it will enrich for peaceful purposes but will not give up its nuclear programme built over decades and despite crippling economic sanctions.

Uranium needs to be enriched up to 90 per cent to make ‘weapons grade’ warheads. Iran, subjected to inspection of its nuclear facilities by IAEA, is said to have been able to enrich uranium up to 60 per cent. It has shown its willingness to stop there or reduce the enrichment level. Its stand does not seem to have shifted in the last 12 hours after US bombing. What has then changed?

1. Iran in its first reaction claimed on Sunday that it had shifted out the enriched uranium from the nuclear facilities, having anticipated the attacks. The IAEA’s confirmation that no radioactivity or radiation was detected after the US bombing tends to support the claim. If correct, both Trump and Netanyahu can find themselves at the receiving end of ridicule.

2. Iran seems to have won the war of narratives. It has held itself up as the victim of unprovoked attacks. It has pointed out that it never left the negotiating table but it was the United States, which did, first during Trump’s first presidency and then again earlier this month when the US gave the green light to Israel to sabotage talks scheduled for 15 June. It has successfully told the world that two nuclear-armed members of the United Nations had attacked its sovereignty.

3. Iran has also scored a tactical victory by choosing to respond to Trump with rhetoric but singled out Israel for severe punishment on Sunday. Hours after the US bombing, missiles from Iran were fired not at American bases in the region, most of them within 500 kilometres, but at Israel, 1,500 kilometres away. New missile types were reportedly used and Iranian commanders have darkly suggested that Sunday night would be remembered by History.

4. On Sunday itself Iran claimed to have hit Ben Gurion Airport, Israel’s Biological Research Centre, both in Tel Aviv, Haifa and Jerusalem besides Israel’s alternate command and control centres. A PR statement from IRGC claimed the guided missiles were equipped with maneuverable warheads. With unconcealed glee it reported that the air raid sirens once again sounded after the impacts and concluded by saying, “We declare that the main operational capabilities of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s armed forces have not yet been deployed”.

5. According to media reports, Iran has selectively shut the strait of Hormuz for oil tankers headed to Europe but not to other destinations. There are also reports of ships finding their signals getting jammed and unconfirmed reports suggest that oil tankers also collided in the process—signalling a level of sophistication in electronic warfare that Iran was not suspected of possessing.

6. The Houthis seem to have ended the ceasefire agreement with the US. If these reports are correct, then the Red Sea too is going to become riskier for ships and tankers to travel through.