Europe on the edge with tension running high but what is Putin’s end game?

Not since the Second World War have tensions in Europe been so high. Indeed, Russia’s invasion of its western neighbour Ukraine resembles Nazi Germany overrunning Poland in September 1939.

The outbreak of hostilities 83 years ago was in many respects a resumption of the First World War, which ended in 1918, but with several disputes unsettled. More than 40 million people died in World War II that engulfed Asia and the Pacific. With the end of the Cold War in 1989, it was assumed that such a nightmare would never return again.

It would be an exaggeration to paint the Russian intervention in Ukraine as a harbinger of a Third World War. But army and air power of the western North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) are positioned in Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and Rumania, thereby breathing down Russia’s neck; and there is no guarantee that a spark will not ignite a conflagration. Modern weaponry and warfare are such that attacks and counter attacks can be carried out from remote locations, without necessarily an eyeball-to-eyeball confrontation.

NATO’s scattered manpower of 40,000 is modest in the face of over 100,000 Russian soldiers surrounding Ukraine. But the former’s structure reportedly includes a Very High Readiness Joint Task Force, which was established after Russia in 2014 took over Crimea, which was under Ukrainian control.

For several months, as President Vladimir Putin amassed armed forces along the Ukrainian border and coast, opinion was divided on his intentions. Some felt it was gunboat diplomacy and the soldiers wouldn’t actually violate the frontier. Others – including United States’ intelligence - were convinced he wouldn’t stop at merely threatening to enter Ukraine, but would actually do so.

On 21 February, Putin set the ball rolling by declaring over a television address that pro-Russia rebel regions in Ukraine – notably Donetsk and Luhansk - had invited the Russian government to protect them; and therefore, he was sending ‘peacekeeping’ divisions into these areas to do so. He said: ‘A hostile anti-Russia is being created on our historic lands (meaning Ukraine, which was a part of the Soviet Union, belonged to Russia). We have taken the decision to conduct a special military operation.’ He argued this was for ‘demilitarisation and denazification’ of Ukraine. Russia has long alleged the Kyiv government is a far-right regime.

He proclaimed: ‘We do not intend to occupy Ukraine.’ But in message quite unnerving for east European countries, who were previously under the stranglehold of the Soviet Union, he warned: ‘To anyone who would consider interfering from the outside: if you do, you will face consequences greater than you have faced in history.’

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At about five am Ukrainian time on 24 February, explosions were heard near major cities in Ukraine, including the capital city Kyiv. Ukraine’s interior minister claimed ballistic and cruise missiles had landed on its soil. Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba was quoted as saying: ‘Putin has launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Peaceful Ukrainian cities are under strikes. Ukraine will defend itself. The world can and must stop Putin.’

In 1939, Poland had assurances of British and French military support if Germany attacked it. Adolf Hitler had neutralised the Soviet Union coming to Poland’s rescue with a non-aggression pact. Britain and France failed to defend Poland from the blitzkrieg that followed.

Ukraine, too, has an understanding with the United States and the United Kingdom about them coming to its aid, should Russia disregard its sovereignty. But after its involvement in Iraq and more so in Afghanistan, the US is war weary and has no stomach to engage in another battle in a faraway place, that, too, against a powerful foe like Russia.

Britain is full of bluster and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson gives the impression that his rhetoric is as much about saving his political career – as he faces a barrage of corruption and law-breaking charges – as about standing up for Ukraine.

UK’s economic sanctions against Russia looked minimal alongside the measures announced by the European Union and the US. Britain has been a safe haven for controversial Russian oligarchs, who have invested heavily in real estate in London, not to mention ownership of newspapers and the Chelsea Football Club. They also donate millions of pounds to Johnson’s ruling Conservative party.

In the Second World War, the Soviet Union and the US became allies to oppose Hitler. But in 1962, during the height of the Cold War, they stood on the brink of a major escalation, when Washington’s deployment of missiles in Italy and Turkey was met by Moscow doing the same in Cuba at its leader Fidel Castro’s request. In effect, Soviet missiles were stationed just 90 miles away from the US state of Florida. Belligerence reigned before the US President John Kennedy and Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev defused the crisis.

An unwritten understanding was reached that the two powers would not militarily penetrate into the other’s sphere. The US-led NATO was already well-entrenched in western Europe and the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1989 emboldened NATO to stretch its boundary further east.

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Putin, a KGB cold war warrior, has often hinted at not being reconciled to the crumbling of the Soviet Union. For three decades, Russia did not have the capacity to respond – even now its economy is not robust compared to western countries and China – but it has recovered militarily and its cyber capability is said to be lethal.

So, what is his Putin’s end game? What does he hope to achieve with his gambit? His demands include Ukraine - where Soviet nuclear weapons used to be located - not becoming a member of NATO and effectively reverting to being a part of Russia’s sphere of influence.

Pro-Moscow separatism, while not a majority tendency, is also a reality in Ukraine. In addition to Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk, Odessa is also vulnerable from the viewpoint of the Kyiv government. A 2014 opinion poll conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology had revealed that a majority in these regions wanted Ukraine to remain independent, but with friendly relations with Russia.

Putin has, however, decided to force the issue. He would have taken into account the economic sanctions by the West. But sanctions also hurt international commerce, which the world can ill-afford.

Putin’s reassertion of Russian muscle will please nationalists in his country. A diplomatic settlement – not immediately – but in the medium term cannot be ruled out.

(This was first published in National Herald on Sunday)