India’s diplomatic isolation is worrying

On 1 July, Pakistan assumed a month-long presidency of the United Nations Security Council, the most powerful constituent of the United Nations. This is no great shakes: the presidency comes around by monthly rotation, in English alphabetical order, among the 15 current UNSC members.

What makes one chuckle, though, is that knowing this isn’t such a rare ‘honour’ did not deter the cheerleaders of the Narendra Modi government from making a big song and dance when it was India’s turn to occupy the same position during its last non-permanent membership of the UNSC.

India is a founding member of the UN, being one of the 50 original signatories to the UN Charter adopted in 1945. It has been a non-permanent member of the UNSC no less than seven times before its turn came again under Modi.

The real indicator of Pakistan’s diplomatic standing was the broad support it received in the UN General Assembly vote of June 2024 (to elect UNSC non-permanent members for the 2025-26 term)—Pakistan secured 182 of 193 votes, another signal that the Modi government’s animus towards Pakistan has not swayed global opinion.

Concurrently with the UNSC presidency, Pakistan chairs the Taliban Sanctions Committee and is vice-chair of the UN Counter Terrorism Committee, which not only exposes India’s empty brag about isolating Pakistan but also devalues its position that Pakistan is a state that sponsors terrorism.

In fact, if Pakistan chief of army staff Asim Munir’s periodic anti-India statements are any indication, Pakistan could try to platform alleged suppression of democracy, freedom and human rights by India in Kashmir.

India is on a sticky wicket, not the least because the Modi government has failed to provide evidence of Pakistan’s involvement in the Pahalgam massacre of 22 April, following which the Indian Air Force embarked on a missile attack on alleged terrorist centres in Pakistan.

Speaking in London, A.S. Dulat, a former head of India’s Research & Analysis Wing, remarked that the ISI was likely behind the incident but he didn’t rule out the hand of homegrown elements. Pakistan will doubtless insist it was only the latter. That said, none of the veto-wielding permanent members of the UNSC will countenance a resolution against India, including perhaps China.

On the prodding of the Indian external affairs establishment, Indian media has tried to make something of the recent joint statement by QUAD foreign ministers in Washington that goes: ‘We call for the perpetrators, organizers and financiers of this reprehensible act [in Pahalgam] to be brought to justice without any delay and urge all UN Member States, in accordance with their obligations under international law and relevant UNSCRs (UNSC resolutions), to cooperate actively with all relevant authorities in this regard.’

What the headlines are eliding is that there is still no mention of Pakistan. And the statement is not so much a declaration of intent as a cry for help from India to the international community to help track down the killers.

Soft-landing a trade deal?

Possibly before this appears in print or before the 9 July deadline set by Donald Trump, the US and India will start soft-landing a trade agreement. Trump was quoted by Reuters as saying, “Right now, India doesn’t accept anybody in. I think India is going to do that. If they do that, we’re going to have a deal for less, much less tariffs.” That is being widely read to mean India will lower tariffs on American exports, to dodge Trump’s threat of 26 per cent tariffs across the board on Indian exports.  

The Indian negotiating team extended their stay in Washington to try and finalise an initial, partial arrangement. It was not clear what concessions India might get in return. If, for instance, India does lower tariffs on the import of US farm goods—contrary to media headlines screaming about India’s ‘red lines’ (on imports of corn, soyabean, dairy and ethanol, India imposes both tariff and non-tariff curbs, and the US wants these restrictions to be lifted)—what benefits will India get in lieu of this?

The UK is the only big economy to have made a deal with Trump, and a favourable one, too, which will aid its car, steel and aluminium exports, which should in turn help Tata-owned Jaguar and Land Rover. Canada, Mexico, Japan and the European Union are so far standing firm against Trump’s threats.

A Muslim mayor for NYC?

Which brings us to the possibility of a man of Indian descent being elected the next mayor of New York City.

Thirty three-year-old Zohran Mamdani defeated a former governor of New York State, Andrew Cuomo, in a Democratic party primary contest to earn the right to be his party’s candidate. A New York State assembly member from the Queens district of New York City, Mamdani got 56 per cent of the votes.

Mamdani’s rise in public esteem has been meteoric following his victory in the NYC mayoral primary on 24 June. His transformative vision for NYC and his ability to inspire and mobilise first-time voters and to engage diverse communities created a broad, multi-racial coalition in his support.

He has also quickly made powerful enemies. A democratic socialist, Mamdani was instantly opposed by Trump, who labelled him a ‘pure communist’, and threatened to withhold funds for New York City, if the presumptive nominee does not do the ‘right thing’, if elected in November.

Mamdani is the son of filmmaker Mira Nair and Ugandan academic of Indian extraction Mahmood Mamdani, a professor of political science, anthropology and African Studies at Columbia University.

His campaign focused on affordability issues and promised free buses, universal childcare, city-run grocery stores and tax reforms to fund public services. He has condemned Israel’s treatment of Palestinians and pledged to uphold the International Criminal Court’s arrest warrant against Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, should he visit New York.

Mamdani’s ideological beliefs are at odds with PM Modi’s world view. As mayor (should that happen) he’ll have no direct say in judicial matters, but cases involving an alleged Indian plot to assassinate a pro-Khalistan Sikh and corruption charges against Gautam Adani are being heard in courtrooms in New York City.