Making sense of Trump’s visa restrictions

When Donald Trump became president in 2017, one of his first and most controversial moves was the travel ban, often called the ‘Muslim ban'. It targeted several Muslim-majority countries, including Yemen, Syria, Iran, Libya and Somalia, preventing their citizens from entering the United States under the pretext of national security. This decision was widely criticised as discriminatory, sparking protests and legal battles across the country.

Despite initial court rulings against the ban, the Supreme Court upheld it in 2018, reinforcing Trump’s hardline stance on immigration, particularly from Muslim nations. Now, within the first 50 days of his second term, Trump is reportedly planning a new, much larger travel ban — one that could impact up to 43 countries. But this time, the focus has shifted.

Instead of targeting primarily Muslim-majority countries, this list includes many nations with strong economic or security ties with China. Countries like Pakistan, Laos, Myanmar, Turkmenistan and several African states with significant Chinese investment are among those under consideration. This raises serious questions about the real intent behind the new restrictions.

Trump’s first travel ban was driven by rhetoric that linked national security threats with Islam. In his second term, he appears to be shifting focus. Instead of primarily banning travellers from Muslim-majority countries, his administration is now targeting nations that have strong ties with China or are moving in that direction.

While it is not surprising that long-time US adversaries like Iran, Venezuela and North Korea remain on the list, the inclusion of countries such as Pakistan, Belarus, Cambodia and multiple African nations suggests a broader strategy aimed at limiting China’s influence.

Haiti and Bhutan may seem like outliers on the list. However, China recently voted in the UN Security Council to extend the mandate of the UN Integrated Office in Haiti and has expressed its commitment to working towards restoring stability in the country.

Additionally, China’s relations with Bhutan have improved significantly following India’s failed Doklam standoff in 2017. Unlike the previous ban, which was justified on religious and security grounds, this new policy appears to have an economic and geopolitical goal: undermining China’s growing influence. Many of these countries, particularly in Africa and Asia, have benefited from Chinese investments in infrastructure, energy and technology through Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). By restricting visas for their citizens, Trump’s administration might be trying to pressure them into reducing their dependence on China.

This policy signals a more aggressive stance in the US–China rivalry. Trump has consistently emphasised the need to counter China’s growing influence, particularly in trade, military power and global alliances. By restricting travel from countries that have strong ties with Beijing, his administration may be attempting to curb China’s global expansion. However, this approach is likely to backfire.

India should be cautious about celebrating the potential visa ban on Pakistan, as Trump’s strategy could prove counterproductive. Instead of weakening China’s influence, these restrictions might push more countries into Beijing’s orbit, ultimately strengthening China’s global position. Many of the countries on Trump’s list already rely heavily on China for trade, infrastructure and investment. If the US limits their access to visas and economic opportunities, they will have little choice but to strengthen their ties with China. Instead of isolating China, this move could consolidate its influence over these nations.

This is a mistake the US has made before, especially in Africa. For years, Washington has expressed concerns about China’s expanding presence on the continent, but US engagement with Africa has been steadily declining. In 2024, trade between China and Africa reached approximately $296 billion, marking a 5 per cent increase from the previous year.

In contrast, US trade with Sub-Saharan Africa totalled about $72 billion in 2024, highlighting a significant gap between China’s and America’s economic influence in the region.

While China has poured billions into African infrastructure and development projects, the US has relied more on threats, sanctions and conditional aid. The result? Many African nations now see China as a more reliable and consistent partner. If the US continues down this path, it risks further alienating developing countries and driving them even deeper into China’s sphere of influence.

Beyond Africa, this policy shift could also hurt America’s diplomatic and economic standing worldwide. Many of these countries, particularly in Asia and Africa, have historically maintained relations with both the US and China. A restrictive visa policy will not only strain diplomatic ties but also make it harder for American businesses to compete in these markets, which China has already dominated.

Additionally, this travel ban could damage America’s global reputation. While Trump’s first-term travel ban faced opposition from civil rights groups and international allies, a ban focused on China’s economic partners could lead to backlash on a much larger scale. It raises serious concerns that Trump’s immigration policies are not about national security but are instead being used as a tool for economic and geopolitical leverage.

Trump’s first-term travel ban was widely seen as Islamophobic, but this second-term version seems to have a different objective — targeting China’s allies and economic partners. However, rather than isolating China, this policy is more likely to drive these nations further into its arms. The US should take lessons from its failed approach in Africa: threats and sanctions do not work when economic opportunities are at stake. If Washington truly wants to counter China’s influence, it must provide competitive alternatives—rather than simply restricting access.

Instead of pushing these countries away, the US should focus on increasing economic engagement, fostering investment and strengthening partnerships. Otherwise, this travel ban will only help China expand its role in shaping the future of global trade and diplomacy.

Ashok Swain is a professor of peace and conflict research at Uppsala University, Sweden