Qassem Soleimani departs but IRGC remains as potent a force as ever

When the folks at the BBC invited Ardeshir Zahedi, Foreign Minister of Iran during the last Shah of Iran, Reza Shah Pahlavi’s reign, to their studio following the assassination of Major General Qassem Soleimani, commander of the Al-Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), they were expecting a mud-fest. Long abandoned any semblance of neutrality when it comes to Iran or Palestine, BBC thought that calling a monarchist, that too someone who was the son-in-law of the Shah, will provide them with the desired quotes deriding the Iranian government and the slain General while still keeping the fig-leaf of them coming from an “Iranian voice.”

Ardeshir poured water on those plans. Shah’s ex-Foreign Minister and ex-Son-in-Law not only described Soleimani as a “patriotic and honourable soldier who was a son of Iran,” he went on to compare his achievements which those from the likes De Gaulle, Montgomery, MacArthur and Eisenhower. Ardeshir sucked the air out of the studio. Even if I leave this piece at this anecdote itself, cerebral readers will still be more than understanding who Soleimani was and what his death means. Unfortunately, I can’t do that.

The sheer number of Iranians who poured out on the streets of Ahvaz, Kerman, Mashhad and Tehran was mind-boggling. To the Westerners that is. Years of living in their echo-chambers have made them believe their own propaganda. And it was the full force out there. Experts after western experts, with their native informers in tow, were trying to portray that the several tens of millions that thronged the streets were doing so under either some kind of pressure or largesse. What was actually unfolding was a complete disaster for them. This correspondent, during his numerous reportage trips to Iran in the last decade and a half, had the chance to talk to Iranians of all ideology. Initially, I was left perplexed by how much popular Soleimani was even inside the arch-monarchist circles. Iranians of all disposition considered what Soleimani was doing as something that was essential to preserve the Persianate civilisation from the barbarity that Zionism and Wahhabism let loose in the region. He, and the Al-Quds Force, were seen as the bulwark against these forces. That endeared them to even those who would probably celebrate the passing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the confines of their living room.

But what does this assassination means for the Resistance Axis in general and IRGC in particular? IRGC is an ideologically committed, well-motivated and highly disciplined force. There is a proper system in place that runs this well-oiled machinery. It has numerous capable generals in its rank who will fit the right slot. Yes, an organisation is as good as its leader and Soleimani had a different level of charisma and pull. Having said that, his popularity and public beatification came only in the last few years where Psy-Ops war became as important as the war on the ground. For several decades before Soleimani thwarted and later defeated the Islamic State (ISIS), he and the Al-Quds Force had done exemplary work in lending succour to the Resistance Axis stretching from Gaza to Beirut. Be rest assured that even as Iranians pour on to the street to mourn its general, the well-motivated IRGC is already putting able people in charge. For example, Soleimani’s successor, Commander Esmail Ghaani, is a force to reckon with in his own right. Ghaani was managing the Afghanistan theatre, which anyone who has reported from there will tell you, is no less complex a circus to manage. Like the Middle East that Soleimani was managing, Afghanistan is a snake pit. While Soleimani had to manage the complexities and compulsions of Iraqi politics, Ghaani had to walk on his own set of egg-shells managing US, Pakistan and the Taliban in Afghanistan none of whom are particularly friendly to Tehran. Agreed, Soleimani’s personal charm, his disarming way of conducting himself in the presence of an adversary, etc will be missed. Ghaani and others shall have to establish that rapport afresh. However, the sheer fact that he will be stepping into the shoes of Soleimani will melt many a hindrance. Do remember that Soleimani had to contend with the division within the Shia ranks in Iraq with Ammar al-Hakim, Haider al Abadi and Moqtada al Sadr trying to pull it apart. Those divisions will now largely melt as anyone who is not seen as opposing the United States will be targeted as well. This brings us to what happens next.

What happens next is complex. The Iraqi Parliament has passed the motion to expel US troops. There are two scenarios. Either, the US abides by it and leaves or it does not and withdraws to Iraqi Kurdistan, recognising its independence. That will paint every American and Kurd in Iraq with a bullseye on his back. When the US assassinated Soleimani, it did not want to kill Popular Mobilisation Units (Hashad al Shabi) leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis. It was collateral damage, but the damage that will prove to be even costlier than the killing of Soleimani. Even Moqtada al Sadr, a man with a questionable moral compass and even more questionable loyalties, had to fall in line. His militia, the dreaded Saraya al-Salam joined the ranks of Kataeb Hezbollah and Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq in asking their fighters to make Iraq hell for every American soldier. And this is what it will become.

The IRGC has already targeted two US military bases in Iraq with ballistic missiles. Iran claims 80 US soldiers died and around 200 were injured. The US has denied any casualties.

There are several more ways Iran may retaliate. And this does not include the retaliation by Hezbollah in Lebanon, PMU in Iraq and others in Syria. Since a red line has been crossed and Ayatollah Khamenei in the high-level meeting asked the response to be “clear and severe,” Iran will respond in a way where it will make the Americans know that it is responding. There will be no need for plausible deniability. So, what are the options?

While the commander of IRGC said that there are as many as 13 scenarios that Iran is looking at for revenge, frankly, they are much more than that. The response will be long-drawn. It will not be to please the online commentators or those who expect knee-jerk reactions. It will be a war of attrition. Iran will make sure that any action it takes inflicts more than one damage. This is the election year in the US. Iran will start sending US soldiers in body bags to maximise the damage on the prospects of Trump’s re-election. The US understands this. Within 24 hours of assassinating Soleimani — a plan that was unknown to anyone in the US’ chain of command except Trump, Pence, Pompeo and Asper — the United States sent messages and feelers to Tehran through at least 13 countries. Iran has made it clear that any such message will be entertained only after the revenge has been extracted. In spite of all the attempts by Trump and Pompeo to look belligerent on social media, they are dreading the response. Pence and Pompeo, both messianic Armageddonists, wanted the rapture to happen like every other White Anglo-Saxon Protestant in the US does. It is just that they did not want it on their watch.

The US forces in the entirety of the region will be fair game for IRGC. However, chances are that the retaliation will most likely be in Syria, Iraq or, most likely Bahrain. Some sources suggest that it can be all three. There will be some immediate reaction, but that will just be for optics. The real revenge will be long drawn-out and will be delivered across varied geographies.

The Resistance Axis will exact its own revenge. For way too long, Hezbollah, Syrian Arab Army and IRGC had let the US and Israel cross the line while it tried to strengthen its position in Syria. That will now stop. Both IRGC and Hezbollah realise that the equilibrium needs to be established and they can go to any extent now to do so. They understand that if they don’t respond fearing a widespread war, they will die anyway, only that this death will be prolonged and humiliating. And that is something unthinkable for IRGC or Hezbollah.

Western experts are perpetually perplexed at how far the IRGC and the Resistance Axis are willing to push. They don’t understand the importance of martyrdom in Shia theology. It is something that they not only welcome and celebrate but actually actively aspire for. Soleimani never operated undercover in Iraq. His movements were well-known and well-publicised in advance. This was because, first, he was aspiring for martyrdom, and second, he knew that as and when the decision to kill him comes, it will be taken at the top level and the response will also come from the very top. Now that it has happened, the plan for revenge has been set in motion.

Though Iran has said there will be no further aggression on their side, it depends on whether US pushes Iran one more time.

For the first time since the establishment of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the Red Flag, symbolising revenge and a severe battle to come, has been unfurled over the dome of the holy Jamkaran Mosque in the Iranian city of Qom. You will know that revenge has been exacted when that flag comes down.