Stand up to bullies: Lessons for Europe valid for India too

Accusing Europe of following the United States slavishly for far too long, Singapore’s former permanent representative to the United Nations Kishore Mahbubani reminds Europe that desperate times call for desperate measures. While there seem to be few takers even in Europe to his advice that the European Union recalibrate its relationship with Russia, China and NATO, his observations can scarcely be dismissed lightly. Looking at some of his observations may explain why. Is India’s position all that different?

• “It’s too early to tell who the real winners and losers from the second Trump administration will be. Things could change. Yet, there’s no doubt that Europe’s geopolitical standing has diminished considerably. U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to not even consult with or forewarn European leaders before speaking to Russian President Vladimir Putin shows how irrelevant Europe has become.”

• “Europe should announce its willingness to quit NATO. A Europe that is forced to spend five per cent on defence is a Europe that doesn’t need the United States.” (Prof Jeffrey Sachs too has pointed out that Europe should have its own security mechanism, a defence policy and purchase defence procurements from European countries, not the US)

• Five per cent of the combined EU/U.K. GDP in 2024 amounts to $1.1 trillion, comparable to U.S. defence spending of $824 billion in 2024 (In 2024, the EU and U.K. combined spent around $410 billion on defence.).

• One of the first rules of geopolitics is that we must always plan against worst-case scenarios. After the Ukraine war broke out, all European strategic thinking was based on the best-case scenario of the United States being a totally reliable ally, despite having experienced Trump’s first term and his threats to pull out of the world’s biggest military alliance.

• If Metternich or Talleyrand (or Charles de Gaulle) were alive today, they would recommend the unthinkable option number 2: Work out a new grand strategic bargain with Russia, with each side accommodating the other’s core interests. Many influential European strategic minds would balk at these suggestions, because they are convinced that Russia represents a real security threat to the EU countries. Really? Which is Russia’s most fundamental strategic rival, the EU or China? With whom does it have the longest border? And with whom has its relative power changed so much? The Russians are geopolitical realists of the highest order. They know that neither Napoleon’s troops nor Hitler’s tanks are going to advance to Moscow again.

• If the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), a relatively weaker regional organisation, can work out a long-term ‘relationship of trust’ with a rising power like China, surely the EU can do better with Russia.

• The geography of the United States, which faces China across the Pacific Ocean, combined with Washington’s urge for primacy, explains the hostile relationship between the United States and China. (But) What geopolitical pressures have caused the downturn in EU-China relations? The Europeans foolishly believed that a slavish loyalty to American geopolitical priorities would lead to rich geopolitical dividends for them.

• Two thousand years of geopolitics has taught us a simple and obvious lesson: All great powers will put their own interests first and, if necessary, sacrifice the interests of their allies. Trump is behaving like a rational geopolitical actor in putting what he perceives to be his country’s interests first.

• Europe shouldn’t just criticise Trump—instead, it should emulate him. It should carry out the currently unthinkable option: Declare that henceforth it will be a strategically autonomous actor on the world stage that will put its own interests first.

The long and short of it is that bullies have no respect for those who get bullied easily. So, Mahbubani’s advice — equally valid for all countries — is to stand up and be counted; follow an autonomous policy and not slavishly emulate what a super power wants to do. It is time for Indian policy makers too to wake up and smell the coffee.