The big game in Venezuela

President Donald trump this week warned of military intervention if the Venezuela’s socialist President Nicolas Maduro fails to step down. The US was the first country to withdraw recognition to the ‘elected’ Government in Venezuela following opposition’s claim of rigging. The European Union has followed suit and called upon President Maduro to step down in favour of the opposition leader Juan Guaido who has proclaimed himself President. Both the US and the EU have appealed to the military in Venezuela to support the opposition leader. Russia, China, Cuba and Turkey etc. on the other hand have warned against foreign intervention. Here is an explainer to what is snowballing into a major crisis.

VENEZUELA: Population 3.18 Crore, 96% Roman Catholic, ethnic groups Spanish, Italian, German, Portuguese, Arabs and African. Became an independent republic in 1829. Military rule ended in 1959. Hugo Chavez , a socialist leader, led a failed coup in the early nineties before getting elected President in 1999. He died of cancer in 2013. Vice President Nicolas Maduro takes over as President.

US INTERVENTION: Relations between the US and the Socialist Government of Venezuela have been strained for long. Maduro had expelled US diplomats, withdrawn its own top diplomat from the US and in a report in New York Times in 2018, later confirmed by CNN, the US was said to be holding clandestine talks with the military in the Latin American country for a coup. The US this week ordered its oil companies to stop trading with Venezuela in an attempt to escalate the crisis.

WHAT DOES US HOPE TO GAIN?: While access to oil reserves and upholding democracy and human rights are offered as the twin objectives, experts agree that the more important reason is to reduce Russian and Chinese influence in the country. The US had been dislodged from the driver’s seat in the Latin American country and seems keen to re-assert its authority.

THE POLITICAL CRISIS: Venezuela has been under political turmoil since January 10 after Maduro was sworn-in for a second six-year term as the President. Subsequently, Juan Guaido, on January 23, proclaimed himself to be the President, despite Maduro winning the presidential elections last year.The US was the first to recognise Guaido as President and also promised humanitarian aid to Venezuela.

US HYPOCRISY?: Some claim democracy has driven the Trump administration to intervene. But when President Juan Orlando Hernández of Honduras stole the election in 2017, the US offered him full support. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo also tacitly backed Guatemala’s president, Jimmy Morales, even as he quashed a United Nations-mandated anti-corruption commission.

FRESH ELECTION?: Maduro has turned down demands for a fresh election. Rejecting European Union’s calls for new elections he said the country had gone to the polls 25 times in 20 years, adding that the 'problem is in the opposition'.

CIVIL WAR?: Even as the military remained loyal to Maduro, there are increasing concerns that the country is heading towards a civil strife. Pro-Maduro and anti-Maduro demonstrations have rocked the country even as people grapple with scarcity of foodgrains, foreign currency and medicine with a hyper inflation crippling the economy.

Maduro has said he 'will not go down in history as a traitor' as he vowed to resist Washington's demands to step down. He said: 'I'm not going to be a traitor, a weak man who turned his back on his historic commitments to his people. 'What is the casus belli [cause of war] of Donald Trump against Venezuela? It is Venezuela's oil, riches, gold, gas, iron, diamonds and material riches.'

Russia, China, Bolivia, Cuba, Iran, Mexico, North Korea, Turkey and Uruguay continue to back Maduro as leader. Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan accused the EU of hypocrisy by trying to force Maduro out. 'On one side you will say 'democracy, democracy, democracy' and 'ballot box, ballot box, ballot box' and later you will dare to topple the government by violence and ruse,' he added.