The imminent rise of an Islamist epicentre in Syria

The fall of Bashar al-Assad, Syria’s long-entrenched ruler, has reshaped the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East in ways few anticipated. While Syrians inside and outside the country celebrated the collapse of the Assad regime, the future of Syria remains precarious. What began as a foreign-backed militia uprising against a powerful regime has evolved into a deeply fragmented state, primed for extremist resurgence.

As Assad's government crumbles, the absence of central authority and the growing influence of radical Islamist factions, such as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), could transform Syria into the next epicenter of global terror. For the West, particularly for the United States, what seems like a strategic victory over Russia and Iran might quickly morph into a security nightmare.

The roots of Syria's precarious future lie in the swift and unexpected collapse of the Assad regime. After surviving more than a decade of brutal civil war, Assad’s power crumbled within weeks. His fall resulted from three interlocking factors.

First, Russia and Iran, his two primary backers, were forced to scale back their support due to their own pressing geopolitical challenges. Russia was consumed by its war in Ukraine, while Iran faced escalating conflicts with Israel and mounting internal dissent.

Second, Assad’s government had become a hollow shell, corroded by corruption, incompetence, and war fatigue. His demoralized military, long unpaid and poorly led, disintegrated when faced with HTS’s well-organized offensive. He also lost the support of Hezbollah forces due to Israel’s war on Lebanon.

Finally, HTS evolved into a formidable force, transforming from an al-Qaeda affiliate into a powerful military and political entity capable of toppling a regime that once seemed invincible.

However, Assad’s departure has not ushered in a new era of stability. On the contrary, his fall has left Syria shattered and exposed to multiple threats that are likely to turn it into a breeding ground for Islamist terrorism. HTS now controls a large part of the country, wielding power through both military strength and a governing apparatus refined during years of control over the Idlib region.

Syria’s main Islamist rebel leader, Abu Mohammed al-Joulani, has not secured full control of northern Syria, where Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA), Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), and other factions operate. Israel poses a direct military threat from the south, while ISIS insurgents remain active in Syria’s eastern Badiya desert. Israel has systematically targeted Syria's remaining air and naval force assets.

Rebels in Syria have appointed Mohammed al-Bashir as the country's new interim prime minister. He previously governed a small rebel-held area under Bashar al-Assad's rule. Meanwhile, Turkey, along with Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt, has accused Israel of exploiting Assad's downfall. The Israeli military confirmed operating beyond the demilitarized buffer zone in Syria.

Additionally, Joulani has vowed to expose Assad regime officials involved in torturing political prisoners. While rebel leaders have attempted to rebrand the group as a nationalist force focused on Syrian governance rather than global jihad, its extremist origins remain a cause for serious concern. It is an offshoot of al-Qaeda, and its current moderation is a strategic ploy rather than a genuine ideological shift.

Syria’s fractured political landscape further complicates the situation. The Assad regime’s collapse has created a dangerous power vacuum reminiscent of post-invasion Iraq in 2003, where disbanding the Iraqi military contributed directly to the rise of ISIS. In Syria, the absence of a central government and a professional armed force has unleashed a chaotic struggle among competing armed factions.

Pro-Assad Alawite militias, Kurdish forces, and remnants of the Islamic State are all vying for territorial control. This fragmented environment, combined with porous borders and weak state institutions, provides an ideal setting for jihadist groups to regroup, recruit, and expand their influence.

Adding to the complexity is the likely return of thousands of foreign fighters who once flocked to Syria during the height of the Islamic State’s caliphate. Many of these fighters are now veterans of brutal warfare, capable of building terrorist networks with global reach.

Furthermore, disaffected Syrian youth, displaced and traumatized by years of war, present a vulnerable population susceptible to radicalization. If these conditions persist, Syria could become the world’s most dangerous incubator of extremism.

From a geopolitical perspective, the collapse of the Assad regime might seem like a victory for U.S. strategic interests. With Iran and Russia weakened by the loss of a key Middle Eastern ally, U.S. influence in the region appears strengthened. However, this perceived win could quickly become a liability if Washington fails to recognize and respond to the evolving threats in Syria.

The U.S. faces several potential threats stemming from Syria’s current instability. First, a jihadist-controlled Syria could serve as a launchpad for terrorist attacks targeting Western allies in Europe and the Middle East. The 2015 European migrant crisis, triggered in part by the Syrian civil war, demonstrated how instability in Syria can ripple far beyond its borders.

Second, the Islamic State, though weakened, is far from defeated. Its fighters have already carried out insurgent-style attacks in central Syria, signaling their continued presence and capacity for resurgence. Third, regional rivals such as Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Iran could exploit the chaos by backing competing factions, fueling endless proxy wars and deepening Syria’s fragmentation.

The consequences of Syria’s collapse extend beyond the Middle East. The potential emergence of a terrorist safe haven in Syria is certainly going to pose a direct threat to international security.

Much like Afghanistan in the 1990s or Iraq in the aftermath of the US invasion in 2003 or Libya after the fall of Gaddafi in 2011, Syria could become a hub for global jihadist operations. Its strategic location, bordering Turkey, Iraq, Jordan, and Lebanon, provides militant groups with easy access to smuggling routes, international supply chains, and potential targets across the region.

While Assad’s fall may have ended one chapter of Syria’s dark history, it has opened a new and potentially more dangerous one. The absence of centralized authority, combined with the rise of Islamist factions and the persistence of proxy wars, risks transforming Syria into the next epicenter of global terror. The fall of Assad was not the end of Syria’s tragedy; it may very well be the beginning of its most dangerous chapter yet.

(Ashok Swain is a professor of peace and conflict research at Uppsala University, Sweden)