Trumpets in Washington, tensions in Delhi

On 20 January, Donald Trump, 78, was sworn in as the 47^th president of the United States. In a no-holds-barred acceptance speech, Trump tore the past to shreds and triumphally announced the advent of a ‘golden age’ for the US.

As Trump contemptuously dismissed his predecessor Joe Biden’s presidency, the latter listened in stony silence. Only once did he stand and applaud, when Trump mentioned the first tranche of Israeli hostages released by Hamas. Since the ceasefire agreement between the two occurred under his watch—albeit at the eleventh hour—Biden takes credit for this. Trump claims that had he not leaned on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, there would have been be no agreement. There’s truth in both contentions, spreading incredulous belief that an all-powerful loose cannon like Trump could usher peace into the world.

That’s a welcome upshot. An increase in global warming with the world’s biggest contributor to it — the US — withdrawing from the Paris Climate Treaty isn’t. Neither is the thought of transnational health being imperilled by America pulling out of the World Health Organization. India’s poor would be on the firing line on this. Also, if the letter and spirit of the Indo-US strategic partnership is set aside in favour of an ‘America First’ bilateral US-China deal, such an outcome would spell heartbreak for Delhi.

Sitting in the front row, close to the lectern, Modi’s ‘special envoy’, India’s external affairs minister S. Jaishankar, rose to his feet to clap with embarrassing frequency. As an official of a foreign government, diplomatic neutrality would have been wiser.

Having been excluded from the ceremony, Narendra Modi stomached the snub by posting, within hours of Trump’s installation, an ingratiatingly congratulatory message to his ‘dear friend’ Donald Trump.

A most jarring note was the presence of New York-based hardline Khalistani Gurpatwant Pannun at Trump’s inauguration ball. Pannun was allegedly a target of assassination, for which an Indian national is an accused and India’s national security advisor Ajit Doval has been summoned by a US court. So, what game is Modi’s ‘dear friend’ Trump trying to play?

Humiliation for Modi

One is loath to lend currency to the inconsistent Subramanian Swamy’s impressions of Modi and Jaishankar. This Hindutva activist’s abusive definitions of them in an interview to Neelu Vyas on HW News are unrepeatable. What is moot is his assertion that Modi’s relationship with Trump is beyond repair. ‘Sorry, I didn’t meet you in September’ just won’t cut it.

“I know Modi’s psychology,” says Swamy. “He is a bully, if you are weak, he will step on you; if you are strong, he will come and prostrate before you.”

Even if one disregards Swamy’s jibes, one should heed distinguished Indian diplomats like former Indian ambassador to the US Navtej Sarna, who predicted, “Trump 2.0 threatens tremendous disruption on several fronts and India and the world must be prepared.”

Saving grace for New Delhi

The saving grace for New Delhi was a meeting of QUAD (US, Japan, India and Australia) foreign ministers; and a bilateral interaction between Jaishankar and Marco Rubio. Confirmed as US secretary of state, Rubio introduced the ‘US-India Defence Cooperation Act of 2024’ in the Senate. The Modi regime hopes he will endorse American military technology transfer to India, where the US has historically dragged its feet.

The Wall Street Journal speculated that Trump may visit India for a QUAD summit as early as the spring of 2025 alongside a trip to China. Modi will be elated by the propaganda possibilities of such a visit.

But can a deal with Xi go hand-in-hand with QUAD’s averred containment of China?

Trump’s G2 with China

Unless Trump has turned over a new leaf — as many who aren’t gaga about MAGA think — he doesn’t heed good advice. If his mind is made up on a rapprochement with China to ‘solve the world’s problems’, Rubio, reputedly a China hawk, will simply have to fall inline. By delaying the enforcement of a ban on Chinese social media platform TikTok — imposed by the Biden administration and upheld by the US supreme court — Trump has indicated a willingness to bargain.

Beijing sees Chinese exports as the bedrock of China’s economic well-being. Crippling tariffs on the goods and services it sells in the US are bound to reduce demand.

To avoid this, President Xi Jinping may well consider not impinging on American defence and security interests.

But where does Trump draw the line? If his primary concern is the protection of American territory, airspace and waters, it would mean a retreat from America’s international commitments since World War II.

In effect, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Philippines and India could be left exposed to Chinese expansionism.

Trump’s war against immigration

Unrestricted non-white, non-Christian immigration has undoubtedly become exponentially unpopular with white Anglo-Saxon Americans. Within hours of re-entering the White House after four years

Trump declared a state of emergency on the southern border of the US. The building of the wall along the border with Mexico is to be completed, with Pentagon or American defence ministry resources. An app that enabled migrants seeking asylum to fix appointments with US officials has been discontinued.

Pope Francis, head of the Catholic church, who enjoys a strong influence over 23 per cent of Americans, mainly Catholic migrants from south and central America, called Trump’s proposed mass deportation plan for migrants “a disgrace”.

Trump curtails birthright citizenship

Under the 14th Amendment of the country’s constitution, anyone born in the US is automatically granted American citizenship. Trump ordered an end to this open-ended qualification. The original statute makes ineligible those who are ‘not subject to the jurisdiction thereof’. Interpreted to mean children of foreign diplomats only, Trump is citing this as justification for his clampdown.

Indians eager to grab the glitter of US citizenship are now in disarray. Children of Green Card holders who are permanent residents of the US, H1B work permit visa holders, short-term visa holders, students and visitors, not to mention undocumented immigrants, are out in the cold.

The directive is likely to be challenged in court, where past amendments have been disallowed. But with a pro-Trump Supreme Court in place as well as a Republican majority in the Senate and the House of Representatives, a dilution cannot be ruled out.

Within minutes of Trump’s announcement of the department of government efficiency (DoGE) — an Elon Musk-led non-government advisory body tasked with submitting proposals to cut the federal administration’s costs — four lawsuits were slapped down by advocacy groups seeking its closure unless the DoGE complied with federal transparency laws. Meanwhile, Musk’s deputy Vivek Ramaswamy, an entrepreneur of Indian extraction, quit the department amid media reports that he wants to run for Ohio governor.

Trump–Putin entente a relief for India?

Trump’s doublespeak on Russia was characteristic. On one hand, he said, “I think Russia is going to be in big trouble. You take a look at their economy. You take a look at their inflation”. On the other hand, he remarked, “I got along well with him (Russian president Vladimir Putin). I would hope he wants to make a deal (on Ukraine).”

Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, can only ‘hope’ Trump will not agree to Russia retaining all the Ukrainian territory it has captured.

The Trump–Putin bonhomie will displease Europeans, who sense the proximity of a Russian threat. Yet, without the US on board, Germany, France and Britain will be hard put to sustain the fight for Ukraine. The military alliance, North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), will also be impaired without wholehearted US participation.

Trump is on record saying he would encourage Russia to do ‘whatever the hell they want’ to any NATO member country that doesn’t meet spending guidelines. Such countries would not be offered US protection.

Meanwhile, Putin and Xi held a deliberately advertised video call to reaffirm their solidarity and transmit a signal to Trump. This emphasised that de-escalation of armed conflicts in the world will need at least a G3.

A defrosting of Russo-US ties will ease the discomfort in Delhi too. Modi’s 2014 tilt towards Washington annoyed Moscow. His failure to condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine irritated Washington, as did India buying massive amounts of crude oil from Siberia. In other words, Modi–Jaishankar’s running with the hare and hunting with the hounds has backfired on India.

Views are personal.

Ashis Ray can be found on X @ashiscray. More of his writing can be read here