US midterms: Voters to deliver verdict on Trump’s 21 months in office

• Voters will judge Donald Trump amid rising prices, tariffs and the Iran conflict, with his approval rating falling to 39.1 per cent

• Polls project a Democratic majority in the House, while the Senate race remains tight

• Party divisions and candidate controversies in Michigan, Alaska and Maine could affect the Senate battle and the balance of power in Congress

US voters will deliver their verdict on Tuesday on President Donald Trump's first 21 months in his second term, a period marked by economic upheaval stemming from his tariffs and the conflict with Iran, whose repercussions have been felt by households in the United States and people around the world.

Polls point to the Democratic Party taking control of the House of Representatives, while the battle for the Senate remains finely balanced, complicated by last-minute turmoil within the party.

Trump appeared resigned on Monday to the possibility of a poor showing by Republicans in the midterm elections, as several polls have suggested.

“For some reason, the sitting president doesn’t win the midterms, but we gave this a very strong shot,” he told supporters at his final rally ahead of Tuesday's vote.

He certainly made an energetic push, holding 30 rallies across 20 states in 32 days. According to the White House, however, he cancelled a rally in Michigan to attend the final campaign gathering in Washington.

Speaking before the Washington Reflecting Pool, Trump attacked Democrats, branding them "communists", "jihadists and Muslim Brotherhood members" who, he claimed, would "blow up" his achievements.

Much of his speech, accompanied by images of his administration's efforts, focused on beautifying the nation's capital. There was little mention of the economic concerns that have increasingly dominated the election campaign.

The polls suggest a significant erosion in Trump's standing. He won the 2024 presidential election with 49.8 per cent of the vote, but the latest RealClear Politics (RCP) aggregation puts Democratic support in congressional elections at 52.1 per cent.

RCP's polling average also shows Trump's job approval rating falling from 50.3 per cent in the first week of his second term to 39.1 per cent now. His disapproval rating has climbed to 58.8 per cent.

At the heart of Tuesday's election is a test of whether Trump's loyal political base can withstand growing public frustration over the cost of living. Affordability has become the shorthand for voters' concerns about rising prices and the pressure on household budgets.

The economy grew by 3.4 per cent in the latest quarter, a figure economists would generally regard as a strong performance. Yet inflation stood at 3.7 per cent in September, with the impact particularly evident in the prices of food and other everyday essentials.

The pressure on consumers has been compounded by Trump's tariffs on imports and the surge in petrol and diesel prices following the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, which he launched alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Of an estimated 174 million eligible voters, 57 million had already cast their ballots by mail or at early voting centres by Monday evening. The remaining voters will have their say on Tuesday.

Among early voters whose party registration was available, 46 per cent were Democrats and 39 per cent Republicans, according to NBC News tracking. In the United States, voters can register with a political party to participate in its primaries, where candidates are selected to contest general elections.

The early voting figures suggest an advantage for Democrats, leaving Republicans needing a strong turnout among Trump's supporters on election day to offset the trend.

Three election analyses — by RCP, CBS News and the Cook Political Report (CPR) — all project a Democratic majority in the 435-member House of Representatives, making a Republican defence of the chamber increasingly difficult.

Their projections put Democratic seats at 222 or more, according to CPR, 229 according to CBS News and 227 according to RCP.

Trump's best hope of avoiding a complete Republican rout lies in the Senate, where several closely contested races could determine control of the 100-member chamber. Most polls and election analysts regard the outcome as too close to call.

However, The New York Times' latest Senate polling, published on Sunday, showed Democrats leading in six of the seven key contests likely to determine the chamber's balance of power, with comfortable margins in several races.

Democrats, who currently hold 47 Senate seats, must nevertheless overcome three controversies that threaten to complicate their bid to capture the upper chamber.

The first emerged in Michigan, where the Democratic Party's Senate nominee runner-up dramatically broke ranks on Sunday, announcing her support for the Republican candidate.

The seat is currently held by the Democrats. Haley Stevens, who narrowly lost the Democratic primary to Abdul El-Sayed and has been locked in a feud with him, stunned party leaders by endorsing Republican Mike Rogers.

Her decision followed tensions over her exclusion from a reconciliation meeting at a church and an advertisement by a group supporting El-Sayed that blamed Israel for rising prices of everyday goods.

In Alaska, Democrats have been accused of backing an independent candidate named Dan Stevens, whose name closely resembles that of the Republican candidate, with only a middle initial distinguishing the two. Critics allege the move was intended to confuse voters.

A judge dismissed a lawsuit filed by the Trump administration seeking to block the election if the Republican candidate lost. The dispute, however, could continue through further appeals and legal challenges in the event of a Republican defeat.

Democrats have also faced difficulties in Maine, where their original Senate candidate withdrew following allegations of sexual misconduct. The party was forced to find a replacement to challenge moderate Republican Susan Collins, a 30-year Senate veteran seeking a sixth term.

Both Alaska and Maine use ranked-choice voting, under which voters rank candidates in order of preference. If no candidate secures more than 50 per cent of first-choice votes, lower-ranked candidates are eliminated and their votes redistributed according to voters' next preferences.

The outcome of Tuesday's elections will therefore determine not only the balance of power in Congress but also how much political room Trump will have to pursue his agenda during the remainder of his second term.

With IANS inputs