Why Trump is dead wrong on deportations

The world watches aghast as Donald Trump, the 47th President of the United States, runs riot. From an Indian perspective, the immediate fallout stems from the evolving US immigration policy enforcement, given that an estimated four million Indians live and work in the United States. This makes Indian Americans the second largest immigrant group in the United States, after Mexico. But Indians are also said to be the third largest as a group among unauthorised immigrants in the US, after Mexico and El Salvador, according to the Pew Research Centre. The number of such Indians is estimated to be between 725,000 (by Pew) and 375,000 (by the US-based Migration Policy Institute). The term being used for this category now is ‘illegal aliens’, a derogatory and dehumanised framing that was banned under President Joe Biden but is now back in circulation under Trump.

A 26 January statement by the US Immigration & Customs Enforcement (ICE) spoke of raids to keep “potentially dangerous criminal aliens out of our communities”. Under Biden, the preferred terms were ‘undocumented non-citizen’, ‘undocumented non-US citizen’ or ‘undocumented individual’, in line with the US seeing itself as ‘a nation of opportunity and of welcome’.

All that is history as the ICE police acquire a new and nasty edge, raiding homes, schools, bars and places of worships. Any mass operation of this kind will tend to stigmatise all Indians as the licence to question, search and detain people is interpreted and executed in a variety of ways that inevitably lead to racial profiling, reinforcing negative stereotypes with minority groups as targets.

All Indians except those at or near the top of the socio-economic ladder may well be living under a shadow of suspicion already.

This marks a remarkable fall for a land where Indians are among the most visible and successful group of immigrants, often working in the vast services sector as well as holding mid-level and senior positions in corporate America.

Reports coming in about ‘raids’ on gurdwaras across the US in the search for undocumented Indians only serve to underline the severity of the strain that Indo-US goodwill and diplomatic relations will soon come under, if the trend continues beyond its initial frenzy.

Already, we have on hand the reported deportation of some 18,000 Indians who allegedly are illegal migrants, so declared before Trump took office.

On a national scale, the number is insignificant, but this is just the beginning, and it speaks of the speed and efficiency with which the process of deportations will likely play out in the US. The manner in which these 18,000 ‘illegal aliens’ are shipped out can serve to embarrass the Narendra Modi government and further fray Indo-US ties.

It will raise new questions for an optics-oriented government that projects India as a growth engine even as an increasing number of Indians look to settle in a foreign land. For now, India is right in asserting that it will take back deportees after verifying that they indeed are Indian citizens.

It will need deft diplomacy to negotiate relationships with a mercurial Trump, who will likely fire away on multiple fronts, notably the threat of new tariffs and trade barriers as well as the scope and size of the H1-B visa programme where Indians are the top baggers. One response may be to lie low and allow Trump to settle. His bark may well be worse than his bite though the world and India must be prepared for nasty surprises.

It is worth noting that among recent Presidents, it was Barack Obama rather than Trump who deported the most people in his first term.

Geroge W. Bush (2001–2009) deported a little over a million, Trump in his first term (2017–2021) deported 3.25 lakh whereas Barack Obama (2009–2017) had almost 1.25 million deportations under his watch, according to a 2021 report by the US-based think tank, Cato Institute. Thus far, Obama wins the title of ‘Deporter-in-Chief’, but this was achieved as part of a carefully laid-out policy rather than wildcat raids or arrests. Modelling how Trump’s push will play out or how many people will be deported has little value since the subject, i.e. Trump, remains tricky, unpredictable and fickleminded. He may do irreparable damage, and yet, he may not really make much of a difference given that the flow of immigrants is essentially dictated by the market.

Immigrants move to the US for a better life, but this push will have no impact without the strong pull from the US market that accommodates workers for economic reasons. They are available for hire, cheaper to hire, diligent, dependable and willing to put in extra hours. At the mid and lower rungs, they are exploited, bringing unparalleled benefits for hirers.

For purely selfish reasons, business lobbies may not be supportive of the raids for long. Yet, there remains the underlying risk of white supremacists in powerful positions leading deportation operations that will leave many scars for the Indian American population. Reports coming in from the US have already raised concerns about US citizens being detained, questioned without access to a lawyer and allowed to go after several hours of detention. As of now, raids continue to expand in response to demands from the new administration that more numbers should be rounded up. Such blunt instruments rarely succeed.

In 1902, the United States Commissioner General of Immigration, Terence Powderly, called for stricter health controls on immigrants at a time of peak migration and disease; during 1880–1924, 23.5 million immigrants came to the US, mostly through Ellis Island in the New York harbour—a port of immigration that was both busy and corrupt. President Theodore Roosevelt in 1902 appointed a young lawyer whose job it became ‘to root out dishonest inspectors who had been bilking immigrants of money in exchange for fraudulent naturalisation papers’, writes Prof. Alan M. Kraut, a Max Planck Institute fellow. America has, of course, come a long way since. Or has it?

Jagdish Rattanani is a journalist and faculty member at SPJIMR.

Courtesy: The Billion Press