A losing battle against the advancing desert

Growing concerns about the possibility of Punjab turning into a desert in this very century can no longer be dismissed as alarmist. Declining water levels in all five rivers in the state and dams storing less than their full capacity are eloquent testimony to something going wrong. Very wrong.

While availability of water in the rivers has decreased from 17 million acre feet to 13 million acre feet in recent years, per capita usage of water in the state continues to be higher than in the rest of India—380 litres per day as against 150 litres elsewhere.

Experts blame the crisis on the emphasis on paddy cultivation, which yields higher returns. They say that the indiscriminate use of pesticides and fertilisers coupled with the growing demand for water as more and more farmers take to paddy crops is what has led to the present precarious situation. The demand for water for agriculture has grown to 43.7 lakh hectare metre, 73 per cent of which is raised from groundwater. During the hearing of a PIL in the Punjab and Haryana High Court, a survey conducted in each block by the Central Ground Water Board in 2020 was cited.

The survey concluded that, by 2039, the state’s groundwater level would drop more than 300 metres from the surface. Punjab Agricultural University (PAU) has been flagging such an eventuality for the past several years.

By studying monsoon data and rainfall patterns between 1971 and 2020, a research paper on climate change by PAU pointed out that crops that need more water are creating conditions for ‘desertification’ through over-cultivation and excessive exploitation of groundwater, in a state that sees relatively less rainfall despite the monsoon extending over four long months.

Layers of saline deposited from pesticides and chemical fertilisers get accumulated in the waterlogged fields that are a necessity for paddy cultivation. To deal with the salinity, the farmers need at least as much if not more water in the next cycle of cultivation. In case there is a shortage of water in the next cycle, the land can potentially become barren. The soil requires rest just as human beings do, and excessive grazing of land, overcultivation and mechanised transportation also weaken the soil’s fertility and lower productivity.

What should alarm us all is that the crisis is not going to affect Punjab alone, nor impact only the availability of food grains. Agriculture in the state provides employment to about six lakh migrant workers. An agrarian crisis will affect not just the economy of Punjab but also that of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, two states that provide the bulk of migrant workers and depend on food grains grown in Punjab. The prescription for what ails the state is replacing wheat and rice as Punjab’s principal crops. Projects to break the crop cycle and recharge groundwater should be a priority in every village.

A ban on mining, immediate and long-term action that would address diminishing water flow, tackle pollution and remove encroachments on Punjab’s rivers are some of the other urgent priorities. Sand mining needs to be supervised and regulated and strict action taken against both the factories that discharge pollutants and the local bodies that routinely fail to take action against them. Unfortunately, neither the political nor the social will required for coordinated action by all stakeholders is visible yet.

The danger is immense and the risks cannot be glossed over—once the desert takes hold, retrieving the land would take several centuries. I n 1985, around 85 per cent of Punjab had adequate water. By 2018, 45 per cent of the state was reported to have very little water and 6 per cent of the state had almost no water at all. Today, tube wells are being dug to depths of 300 to 1,000 feet. More than 1.4 million tube wells are said to have been installed in Punjab. No wonder the groundwater level is going down by an average of 50 centimetre every year. In 1960, paddy cultivation took up just 2.27 lakh hectares. Rice was not a staple diet of the people; coarse grains, wheat, gram etc. were grown.

As much as was needed for household consumption was retained before the harvest was sent off to other parts of the country. Since then, paddy cultivation has grown to more than 30 lakh hectares. In 2019, when the government realised the extent of this crisis, it passed a law shifting the sowing month from the scorching heat of May to monsoonal June. The hope was that the farmers’ need for water would be fulfilled by nature.

This shift has actually added to another problem—that of stubble burning. To make a bad situation worse, the rainy season is not only getting delayed, the rains are becoming increasingly erratic and unpredictable. The Bhakra Beas Management Board (BBMB) recently issued a notification that warned of the alarmingly low level of water in the dam due to inadequate rainfall and snowfall. On 20 November 2024, the water level in the Bhakra dam was recorded at 16.33 feet, which was 15 feet lower than the previous year.

At the end of December 2024, only 63 per cent of the total storage capacity of the dam was full.

The Pong Dam, which is another major reservoir, had even less water at just 50 per cent of its capacity. Hovering around 1,343 feet at the end of 2024, the water level at Pong was apparently 18 feet lower than in 2023. The less the water in the dams, the greater the exploitation of groundwater for agriculture and domestic purposes.

A joint satellite survey by the Punjab Soil Conservation and Central Ground Water Level Board revealed that if the state continued to exploit ground water at the current rate, only five per cent of the area would have any groundwater left in the next 18 years.

All groundwater sources are completely exhausted. The looming drinking water crisis will be exacerbated by the land turning rapidly into sand. A research paper by ISRO shows that the Thar desert is spreading out of Rajasthan and into several neighbouring states.

In 1996, the Thar covered an area of 1,96,150 sq. km. This has now expanded to 2, 81,100 sq. km. Of the total 328.73 million acres of land in India, 105.19 million acres of land falls within the Thar desert. With 82.18 million hectares of additional land turning into desert, barrenness has already set in.

In Bhatinda, Mansa, Moga, Ferozepur, Muktsar and Faridkot, radioactive elements in the soil are reported to have crossed acceptable limits: this is one of the telltale signs of an advancing desert. To be fair, government agencies are trying to make people aware of the water crisis arising largely due to paddy cultivation, unfortunately with limited success.