Campaigns in southern states end tomorrow with BJP’s all out bid to emerge out of the cow belt

There is a pattern the way the Centre has forced itself thick into State poll battles in 2021 (South and East) with the Modi Government' and BJP’s determined objectives of not merely wresting West Bengal from Mamata Banerjee's TMC and retaining Assam, but also becoming a decisive player in reshaping politics and policies in Tamil Nadu and Kerala. Behind all this must be the larger concept ("Sankalp") of bringing about a "New India" by 2022, 75th anniversary of India's independence.

All other objectives like doubling of farmers' incomes may be sliding out of reach. The economy may have tanked. Joblessness may have grown. Desperately poor people may have taken to crime. The Prime Minister's call for one-nation, one-law, one tax, one election and possibly one language may also be coming up against the wall of Constitutional autonomy given to states and cultural diversity. There may be other domestic and international challenges. The pandemic may not have been quite tamed and the government may have made a hash of producing vaccines and vaccinating the people. But the popularity of the PM and the BJP, mainstream media tell us 24x7, is as high as ever.

Much depends on the way people vote in four states on April 6 and in Bengal till April 29. We will know when the outcome is declared on May 2. The high polling percentages so far, which have ranged between 70 and 88 percent in Assam and West Bengal, are interpreted by rival sides to their advantage.

It remains to be seen however how strong the polling can be in Kerala and Tamil Nadu.

The electoral scene in Tamil Nadu is cluttered up with smaller parties and scores of individuals with some influence outside the two traditional rivals, ruling AIADMK and DMK, the former aligned with BJP and the latter in alliance with Congress.

There are smaller alliances like AMMK led by T.T.V Dhinakaran partnered by Capt. Vijaykanth's DMDK, which had once won some 29 seats. But AMMK, which is looked with favour by Ms. V K Sasikala, though out of politics for the present, can hurt ruling AIADMK whose dissidents may have found places in AMMK. Cine Star Kamal Haasan's MNM is largely fighting a lonely battle despite his programme being viewed positively.

The campaigns in Southern states come to an end on Sunday (April 4), the day before voting on April 6 for the 234-member TN Assembly, 140- member Kerala Assembly and in Puducherry (30 members).

BJP at the Centre has thrown all its resources into these Assembly battles, deputing senior Ministers to preach and propagate the cliches, even as Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah have had a commanding presence in the battle zones.

Ruling AIADMK leader E K Palaniswami and Deputy CM O Panneerselvam have drawn considerable comfort from BJP leaders' supportive campaign and maintaining allegations of corruption and disrespect of women against DMK. A series of tax raids have also been unleashed against select leaders in the opposition including the son-in-law of DMK leader M K Stalin.

For his part, the DMK leader still remains confident of defeating AIADMK and "retrieving rights (like education) lost to the Centre". An ally of DMK, Mr Vaiko (MDMK) sees "overwhelming support" for their Secular Progressive Alliance and says Tamil Nadu would fight the "Hindutva forces".

Over 50,000 CRPF personnel have been deployed mainly for Bengal polls, with the approval of CEC .The official claim is, it it is to ensure peaceful conduct of polls and to prevent any illegal infiltrations into polling stations.

Prime Minister Modi has stretched himself over the last ten days with his visit to Bangladesh, where his programmes and observations seemed designed to aid the party's campaign in parts of West Bengal. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has also headed BJP's electoral campaigns in both Southern states and Puducherry, with his well publicised visits to temples adding to his eloquence.

Besides Home Minister Amit Shah, who too has been campaigning vigorously crisscrossing the country and who predicts victory for his party in every phase in West Bengal and Assam, a number of Cabinet Ministers including Defence Minister Rajnath Singh have been adressing rallies in both Kerala and Tamil Nadu.

BJP, which has just one MLA in Kerala Assembly, is fighting a bigger battle against LDF in Kerala, having put up 100 candidates and inducting 'Metro Man' E. Sreedharan, who is contesting from Palakkad.

The Modi-Shah visits and loaded speeches across the four states - Assam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Kerala -and the Union Territory of Puducherry is clearly intended to make BJP a fully national party, no longer to be regarded as a party confined to the cow belt. (IPA Service. Views are Personal)