Can New Delhi say ‘sorry’ to Manipur?

After two years of uneasy calm, violence resurfaced in five valley districts of Manipur on 7 June 2025. Arambai Tenggol (AT), an armed Meitei radical group, is behind this round to pressurise the central government to release its self-styled commander Ashem Kanan Singh.

Kanan, a former Manipur Police head constable, was arrested for his alleged involvement in an attempt to murder the serving additional superintendent of police of West Imphal district. He was dismissed from service earlier this year for his alleged role in the smuggling of weapons across the India-Myanmar border.

The aftermath of the 7 June violence followed a familiar pattern. In Manipur, which is under President’s Rule, the administration imposed prohibitory orders and suspended internet and mobile data services in the valley districts of Imphal East, Imphal West, Bishnupur, Kakching and Thoubal for five days.

The AT responded by ‘imposing’ a 10-day shutdown across these five districts. The Kakching unit of AT threatened a wider agitation if a popular government was not in place by 10 June. Vehicles were set on fire on Airport Road. The situation became so volatile that Manipur Governor Ajay Kumar Bhalla had to use a helicopter from Raj Bhavan to reach the airport.

An uneasy truce now prevails in the Imphal Valley as AT boys hold back. On 10 June, former Chief Minister Biren Singh and Manipur’s erstwhile Maharaja and BJP Rajya Sabha member Leishemba Sanajaoba left for Delhi to brief central leaders on the escalating tensions.

By the end of the day, AT withdrew its shutdown “to lessen the inconvenience faced by the people across the valley,” AT spokesperson Robin Mangang said. He said the group will continue with democratic forms of agitation until their leader was released unconditionally.

Kanan’s arrest, AT’s muscle flexing and its subsequent climb down to adopt “democratic forms of agitation” has surprised observers. It appears that under President’s Rule, the group no longer enjoys the free run it did under Biren government. BJP MLA Paolienlal Haokip said, “There is no doubt that under President’s Rule, there is a semblance of law enforcement. Kanan’s arrest is an indication of law eventually catching up.”

But the events around 7 June also showed that Manipur’s conflict is far more complex than a mere ‘media-peddled’ binary of Meiteis versus the rest. It revealed that Meiteis were not a homogenous group gathered behind Biren Singh and Sanajaoba. “Meiteis in Manipur today are tax-paying citizens whose history, culture and talent the central government is out to destroy,” said academician, peace activist and author Deben Bachaspatimayum.

While the outcome of the meeting in Delhi may be important for Meitei groups, Kukis do not attach much significance to this. According to Seilen Haokip, spokesperson of the Kuki National Organisation (KNO), Kannan’s arrest clearly established the Meitei groups’ culpability in the looting and riots in 2023.

“Events also clearly established the state government’s complicity in Manipur’s ethnic cleansing and genocide. Neither are we waiting nor do we care about meetings in Delhi,” Haokip asserted.

He said although President’s Rule has eroded Biren Singh’s control over Manipur’s local administration, he continues to retain a degree of operational control, working in the background. KNO is part of the umbrella group of Kuki-Zo insurgent outfits that are currently in a Suspension of Operation agreement with the Centre.

***

Although Meitei groups like AT wanted a restoration of a popular government, the outcome of an election might not go in favour of the BJP. According to a BJP leader, if elections take place today, the party — which now has 37 seats (out of 60) — will be wiped out in the hill areas, dominated by the Kuki-Zo and Naga tribes.

With overhang of violence and AT’s persistent muscle-flexing splitting the Meiteis, the party will not be in a position to repeat its 2022 performance in Imphal Valley. The Congress may gain by default, leading to, in all probably, a hung assembly.

The possibility of a hung assembly becomes more imminent when Manipur’s Nagas are brought in to the picture. Manipur’s estimated population is 37.56 lakhs, calculated on the basis of a 24.50 per cent decadal growth rate applied on 2011 census data.

To a starred question in Lok Sabha in 2022, Government of India disclosed Manipur’s tribal population to be 11,67,422, represented by 20 tribal legislators. Non-tribal Meiteis reportedly make up around 44 per cent, followed by Naga tribes at 20 per cent and Kuki-Zo tribes at 16 per cent.

The Meitei muscle-flexing since 2023 has made the Nagas nervous and reports of Manipur’s Nagas—whose Naga People’s Front (NPF) shared power in Manipur’s Biren Singh government—organizing themselves for a greater political role. “In keeping with the spirit of accommodation, Manipur’s next Chief Minister should be a Naga,” said a senior Naga leader.

Naga sources, on condition of anonymity, said the NSCN-IM headquarters at Camp Hebron has given the go-ahead for heightened political mobilisation of Nagas in Manipur. While NSCN (IM) leadership will issue customary condemnation of such activities, it will not escalate them to “action on the ground,” sources said.

For the moment, Manipur’s social schism seems too deep and wide for any meaningful dialogue to begin. Meiteis do not want to split Manipur. “Division of communities help Delhi’s rulers by breaking solidarity,” said Bachaspatimayum, adding that Meiteis and Nagas can coalesce if the former show magnanimity.

But Kukis are steadfast in their demand for their own separate administrative unit. While a trifurcation of Manipur is possible, administering such an arrangement, especially along a strategic international border, can be difficult.

But all these combinations involve discussions and dialogue where diverse voices—of women, civil society groups—need to be heard at the table. For Manipur, the bigger problem lies with the central government which—in its bid to hold on to power by backing violent and radical groups—lacks the moral authority to host such a dialogue.

“A simple English word ‘sorry’ by New Delhi can restore the moral authority the central government has ceded in Manipur,” says Bachaspatimayum, and initiate dialogue and the peace process. Saying ‘Sorry’ or ‘Thank You’ however does not come easy for New Delhi.

(Sourabh Sen is a Kolkata-based independent writer and commentator on politics, human rights and foreign affairs)