Climate change pushed onion, potato prices in India up by over 80 pc in 2024: Study

Food prices in India saw a sharp rise in 2024 due to an unusually severe heatwave, with onion and potato prices jumping by more than 80 per cent in the second quarter of the year, according to a new study.

The study, led by Maximilian Kotz of the Barcelona Supercomputing Centre and involving researchers from the European Central Bank, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and the UK's Food Foundation, investigated 16 extreme weather-driven food price shocks across 18 countries between 2022 and 2024.

It found that many of these events exceeded all historical precedents before 2020 and were strongly influenced by global warming.

"In India, the price of onions and potatoes jumped by over 80 per cent in the second quarter of 2024 after a heatwave in May, a 'largely unique event' that was made at least 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer by climate change," the researchers said.

The year 2024 was the hottest on record and the first with a global average temperature 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

In India, extreme heat in May severely affected crop yields and supply chains, contributing to high inflation in essential vegetables.

The study warned that such food price shocks could worsen health outcomes, including malnutrition and chronic diseases and increase economic inequality.

"Rising food prices have direct implications for food security, particularly for low-income households... When the price of food shoots up, low-income families often have to resort to less nutritious, cheaper foods. Diets like this have been linked to a range of health conditions like cancer, diabetes and heart disease," Kotz said.

The researchers said food price inflation due to climate extremes may also "raise headline inflation", making it harder for central banks to maintain price stability, especially in developing countries where food has a larger share in household budgets.

"High rates of inflation can directly alter election outcomes... and boost support for extremist, anti-system and populist parties," the study said.

The study said that in Ghana and Ivory Coast, global cocoa prices increased by around 280 per cent by April 2024 after a February heatwave. The heat was made 4 degrees Celsius hotter by climate change.

In Brazil and Vietnam, heatwaves and drought led to a 55 per cent rise in Arabica coffee prices and a 100 per cent rise in Robusta prices.

In the European Union, olive oil prices rose 50 per cent year-on-year by January 2024 after a drought in Spain and Italy.

In the United States, vegetable prices increased by 80 per cent in November 2022 due to a drought in California and Arizona.

The researchers called for urgent measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and warned that without climate action, such food shocks will become more frequent.

"Until we get to net-zero emissions, extreme weather will only get worse and it is already damaging crops and pushing up the price of food all over the world," Kotz said.

The study also recommended that governments and central banks use seasonal climate predictions to anticipate food price shocks and prepare targeted support.

It cited an HSBC analysis showing that "temperatures are now a better metric for forecasting food prices across India compared to reservoir levels".

The study was released ahead of the UN Food Systems Summit Stocktake on 27 July, co-hosted by Ethiopia and Italy, both of which also experienced food price shocks due to climate change.

The researchers said food affordability must become a policy priority to prevent wider health and political impacts.