Kashmiris feel the heat, quite literally

Har sokhta-jāni ke bā Kashmīr dar āyad/ Gar murgh-e-kabāb ast ke bā bāl-o-par āyad

(Every scorched soul that enters Kashmir/ If it’s a roasted bird, it grows wings, flies again)

That couplet by the 16th-century Persian poet Urfi Shirazi is a lovely paean to Kashmir’s fabled climate. Not any more, though. This July, temperatures across the Kashmir Valley shattered all records. On 5 July, Srinagar recorded 37.4ºC, the hottest day in over 70 years.

Dr Mukhtar Ahmad, director of the Meteorological Centre in Srinagar, told National Herald, “The 37.4 degrees recorded on 5 July was the third-highest July reading since 1892, after 38.3 on 10 July 1946 and 37.7 on 5 July 1953.” The tourist resort of Pahalgam, thronged by people who come here to escape the summer heat in the plains, also saw its hottest July day ever (on 5 July), with the temperature hitting 31.6ºC.

These record-breaking temperatures are not isolated events but part of a changing pattern. According to a 2019 study published in Environmental Research Letters, a peer-reviewed journal of environmental science, Kashmir’s annual average temperature rose by 0.8ºC between 1980 and 2016. This is why the region is experiencing more frequent and intense heatwaves, affecting the environment and the lives of its residents.

The rise in temperature can be attributed to the usual suspects — global warming, deforestation and urbanisation. Experts fear that future heatwaves could lead to frequent extreme weather events such as flash floods and cloudbursts.

It’s not even just the heat. In recent years, the Valley has also experienced a deficit of rainfall and a lack of snowfall. A 60–99 per cent rainfall deficit has been recorded between December 2024 and June 2025, resulting in a 30 per cent drop in the water levels of the river Jhelum, severely impacting irrigation, agriculture and hydropower generation, a key source of energy in the Valley.

As for winters, last year’s Chillai Kalan — the harshest 40 days of cold — saw alarmingly low snowfall. On 9 January, chief minister Omar Abdullah wrote on X: “I’ve never seen Gulmarg so dry in winter… If we don’t get snow soon, summer is going to be miserable.”

Impact on daily life and agriculture

The recent surge in temperatures has taken a harsh toll on the daily life of residents. The administration has changed school timings in the Valley, with classes now commencing at 7.30 am in Srinagar (compared to 9.00 am earlier) and 8.00 am in the rural areas instead of 9.30 am.

Local newspapers in Srinagar have reported a surge in the sales of air-conditioners (ACs), coolers, fans and refrigerators, and Kashmir Power Distribution Corp. has witnessed a 25 per cent rise in demand during peak hours.

Farmers and orchardists are also anxious. Experts warn that the unseasonal heat could severely impact the region’s staple crops like apples, paddy and saffron. “Temperatures above 25 degrees can trigger hormonal changes in apple trees, reducing both yield and quality,” says Prof. Raihana Habib, an agrometeorologist at Sher-e-Kashmir University of Agricultural Sciences and Technology. “The hailstorms during April–May have already inflicted substantial damage on apple and cherry orchards in Shopian and Kulgam. The heatwave poses an additional threat.”

“Two other thermosensitive crops,” she added, “are paddy and saffron, both of which rely on precise hydro-thermal regimes during their growth phases.”

Saffron, pivotal to the region’s economy, with the foreign exchange it brings in, has also seen a continuous decline for the past several years. It was in 2010–11 that then prime minister Manmohan Singh introduced the National Saffron Mission with a budget of over Rs 400 crore, aimed at increasing production and improving quality.

That year, saffron production was reported at 8 metric tonnes. By 2024, output was down to 2.7 metric tonnes. Last year, Union agriculture minister Arjun Munda said in the Lok Sabha that saffron yield had dropped 67.5 per cent between 2010–11 and 2023–2024. “For saffron, which does best at temperatures of 15–27 degrees, the mean temperature rise of 1.3 degrees over the past 40 years has put this heritage crop at risk,” says Prof. Habib.

In fact, erratic and changing weather patterns put the entire agricultural sector at risk, making it extremely vulnerable. Insurance companies show limited interest in Jammu and Kashmir’s crop insurance scheme. In June, J&K minister for agricultural production Javed Ahmad Dar told reporters that the eagerly awaited crop insurance scheme for farmers in J&K had stalled for lack of interest from insurance firms. “The volatility of the climate makes crops uninsurable for these companies,” an official told National Herald on condition of anonymity.

Tourism too takes a hit

It’s not just farmers. The tourism industry is equally vulnerable. “In the past two years, the extreme heat in June and July has kept many tourists indoors during the day,” said Farooq Ahmad, a Srinagar hotel manager.

Lack of adequate snowfall resulted in the postponement of the Khelo India Winter Games, which was scheduled to be held in Gulmarg’s ski resort from 22–25 February this year. "This is worrying, Kashmir risks losing the natural charm that once drew visitors,” said Ahmad.

Experts believe that human negligence is worsening the crisis. Raja Muzaffar Bhat, a prominent social activist, told NH, “We must accept that we too have played a role in aggravating the problem — with rampant deforestation, haphazard urbanisation and ill-conceived infrastructure projects.

“In the name of development, thousands of trees have been cut over the years. The government is preparing to build a 77 km railway line to Pahalgam, neither required nor demanded by residents. This line will pass through fertile farmland and forested areas, and without a doubt, thousands of trees will be felled. This is how we are ruining our environment.”

In reply to an RTI application, the government has admitted that Kashmir has lost nearly 5.84 lakh trees along the Jhelum and its tributaries over the past five years. “The felled trees were identified as ‘encroachments’ by the irrigation and flood control department. How can we expect that these actions will not disturb our weather patterns?” Bhat asks.

Kashmir’s changing climate mocks Shirazi’s proud verse.