Mann’s gamble: Has Punjab CM alienated farmers for by-election win?

The sudden action took everyone by surprise. On the evening of 19 March, when a large contingent of Punjab Police personnel, accompanied by JCB machines, arrived at the Shambhu and Khanauri border points, no one anticipated what was about to unfold. For over 13 months, farmers protesting under the leadership of the Kisan Mazdoor Morcha (KMM) had been carrying on with their daily routines.

The first shock came with reports that senior Morcha leaders, including Jagjit Singh Dallewal and Sarwan Singh Pandher, had been arrested in Mohali. Almost immediately, the police and JCB machines sprang into action — demolishing the stage and dismantling the makeshift accommodations of the protesting farmers, wasting no time in clearing a road which had remained blocked for more than a year.

Why did the Punjab government, which had not only tolerated the movement for 13 months but also appeared to support it indirectly, suddenly lose patience? To find the answer, one must look 100 km away to Ludhiana, where preparations are underway for the Ludhiana West assembly by-election.

This by-election holds significant strategic importance for Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) supremo Arvind Kejriwal, who is reeling from a major electoral setback in Delhi. AAP has fielded Rajya Sabha MP Sanjeev Arora, a prominent Ludhiana industrialist, as its candidate. Reports suggest that if Arora wins, he will be inducted into the Bhagwant Mann-led Punjab cabinet.

Should Arora resign his Rajya Sabha seat upon victory, a vacancy would open up — potentially paving the way for Kejriwal to secure a position in the Upper House. However, this hinges on AAP’s success in the by-election, a contest that neither Mann nor Kejriwal are leaving any stone unturned to win.

Ludhiana West is an assembly segment largely dominated by the non-Sikh Punjabi urban class — a group that has little sympathy for the farmers’ movement. Their primary concern lies with Ludhiana’s industries, whose declining growth has been a persistent issue. Winning this election without securing their votes is nearly impossible.

In early March, chief minister Mann met with the city’s industrialists, many of whom voiced their frustration over the losses incurred owing to the ongoing farmers' protest. Later, on 17 March, Kejriwal also met Ludhiana’s industrialists, accompanied by Mann. While details of this meeting remain undisclosed, the drastic police action at Shambhu and Khanauri just two days later has raised suspicions of a direct connection.

Mann’s shifting stance toward farmers and their organisations had already become evident earlier in the month. When the Samyukt Kisan Morcha (SKM) announced a protest in Chandigarh, Mann initially called for talks but abruptly walked out mid-meeting in apparent frustration.

Soon after, key SKM leaders were arrested, and farmers were prevented from reaching Chandigarh — mirroring the crackdown they had previously faced from the Haryana government at Shambhu and Khanauri. In his attempt to secure a by-election victory, Mann has now alienated both major farmer factions — SKM and KMM.

However, this alone is unlikely to guarantee an AAP victory in Ludhiana West, especially given the growing disillusionment with the party across Punjab. The results of the last Lok Sabha elections have already provided a glimpse of this declining support.