Modi gets a ‘to do’ list from Trump

It was, by Washington standards, a welcome 9ºC as Narendra Modi’s entourage rolled into the White House. Present alongside the Indian prime minister were external affairs minister S. Jaishankar and national security advisor (NSA) Ajit Doval, seemingly cleared to enter the US. The NSA is facing summons from a New York court for an alleged assassination attempt by Indian agents on Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, a Canadian-American lawyer and Khalistani leader.

Unlike the three previous instances since he took the oath of office on 20 January — when the prime ministers of Israel and Japan and the king of Jordan called on him — Trump did not meet Modi at the portico when the latter’s black, bullet-proof limousine drove in. He received him in a hall where — you’ve guessed it — Modi couldn’t help hugging his ‘dear friend’.

Handshakes, hugs, the obligatory pleasantries and praise out of the way, they settled down in front of a fireplace in one of the presidential drawing rooms. On the shape of things to come, the only inkling one got was Trump’s comment that “We have some big things to talk about. They (India) are going to be purchasing a lot of our oil and gas… We’re going to talk about trade; we’re going to talk about many things.”

The talks were preceded by Trump announcing reciprocal import duties on all trading partners — “I will charge a reciprocal tariff,” he said, “meaning whatever countries charge the United States of America, we’ll charge them” — marking the end of post-war benevolence from the world’s richest country. India is not among the US’s top five trading partners in Asia, but will feel the pinch, nevertheless; it has till 1 April to negotiate mutually acceptable arrangements.

According to Reuters, the US trade-weighted average tariff rate has been about 2.2 per cent, quoting the World Trade Organization, compared with India’s 12 per cent; Trump’s reciprocity threat intends to cancel this imbalance. At a press conference after their meeting, Trump described India as “about the highest tariff charger” and “a hard place to do business”. In his book, India has no right to enjoy a trade surplus — projected to be around $46 billion in 2024.

This, he indicated, would be narrowed by India purchasing “many billions of dollars” of American defence equipment, including F-35 stealth fighters. He demanded reductions in Indians tariffs and a “level playing field”, even though the Modi government has already caved in by pre-emptively lowering import duties on a slew of items important to the US; the tariff cuts were announced in the Union Budget for FY2025–26, tabled on 1 February.

Trump also revealed that US companies would sell small modular reactors — facilitated by the Modi regime amending India’s Civil Liability for Nuclear Damage Act, 2010 — and that the two countries would cooperate in areas like artificial intelligence and the India Middle East Europe Corridor (IMEEC). Given the current instability in West Asia, leave alone questions over its economic viability, the IMEEC is unlikely to see the light of day anytime soon.

Particularly since Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu were in sync on an aggressive path vis-à-vis Iran when they met earlier this month at the White House. India’s involvement in Iran’s Chabahar port could, in fact, invite US sanctions. Jarringly, when asked about China, Trump said he had a “very good relationship” with that country and was “very close” with the Chinese President Xi Jinping.

If Trump cuts a deal with China, ignoring Indian interests, it would no doubt be viewed with concern in New Delhi, but Modi received an assurance from Trump that he wouldn’t turn his back on QUAD (the US–Japan–India– Australia gang-up to contain China). He is also slated to attend the QUAD summit in India later this year.

Requiring the assistance of a teleprompter when it came to his turn to make a statement to media, Modi weakly expressed gratitude to Trump and showered him with flattery — how inspired he was by Trump’s slogan ‘Make America Great Again’ (MAGA), he rather unoriginally resolved to ‘Make India Great Again’ (MIGA) and dreamt aloud of MAGA and MIGA creating a MEGA partnership.

He also pledged to double the Indo–US trade turnover to $500 billion by 2030. Quite unusually, Modi took a few questions from journalists. On India’s illegal immigrants in the US, he declared “they have absolutely no right” to be in America; adding, “we are fully prepared to take them back.” He blamed the problem on gangs indulging in human trafficking. There wasn’t even a hint of expressed displeasure with US authorities sending back the first lot of deportees in handcuffs and chained ankles.

Trump did not rub salt into the wound, as many expected he would, but the pictures of Indians sent back on a US military plane have gone down well with his shrill ‘America First’ support base. Whether the play-tough optics persist in future deportations remains to be seen.

Modi bristled when asked if he’d brought up the case of his friend, businessman Gautam Adani, who is facing bribery charges in the US, with (his other friend) Trump. “There was no discussion,” he angrily retorted. In a preview of Modi’s trip, Dr Daniel Markey, senior advisor at the United States Institute of Peace, said Trump did not invite Modi; the latter sought a meeting and was granted one.

In Washington’s diplomatic circles, this is being read as Modi trying to ingratiate himself with a rampaging bull in a china shop, not to mention backing his claim that ‘Doland’ is a ‘dear friend.’ Trump is unhappy that India has undertaken non-dollar-denominated trade with Russia, and sounded completely intolerant of the BRICS grouping, with its expanded membership.

He would like to see BRICS “closed down” and threatened 100 per cent tariffs “if it plays games”. The diktats didn’t end there. Trump would like to see Modi toe his line on the I2U2 (Israel–India–US–UAE) alliance and play an active role in forging an expansion of his pet Abraham Accords (between Israel and Arab countries), prioritising Saudi Arabia establishing full diplomatic relations with Israel

So far, the Saudis have made normalisation of ties with Tel Aviv contingent upon the fulfilment of a Palestinian state. In line with his commitment to put ‘America First’, Trump does not care if the collaboration on high technology, quantum computing and artificial intelligence is of limited benefit to India; he is only interested in the role India can play to help the US take on the competition from China.

Possibly in anticipation that India will play ball, Trump has confirmed that Pakistani–Canadian Tahawwur Rana will be extradited to India to face trial. Rana is wanted in connection with the 26/11 Mumbai terror attacks and is accused of being an accomplice of Pakistani-American Lashkar-e-Taiba activist David Coleman Headley.

Views are personal.

Ashis Ray can be found on X @ashiscray. More of his writing can be read here