Sukhbir Badal and SAD struggling for support, sympathy

SAD(B) (Shiromani Akali Dal Badal) chief Sukhbir Badal had a narrow escape on Wednesday morning when the alacrity of security personnel foiled an assassination bid on his life. The incident happened at the golden temple where Sukhbir was on guard duty as part of his religious punishment.

The murder attempt on Sukhbir’s life culminated a dramatic few days in Punjab’s recent history in which Sukhbir and 16 other Akali leaders were given religious punishment (Tankhah) for various acts during the 10 years Akali rule between 2007 and 2017. The Tankhah was imposed by the Jathedar of the Akal Takht, which is the highest temporal seat of the Sikhs.

The attack on Sukhbir Singh Badal and the support it received from sections of Sikhs on social media demonstrates that anger against the Akalis persist despite the religious punishment.

The dramatic collapse of Akali Dal in Punjab’s electoral sphere in the last 10 years has led to the regional and Panthic space fractured, weakened, factionalised and radicalised.

A number of Sikh hardliners, influencers and political entrepreneurs are trying to fill the space vacated by Akali Dal and many of them are passionately opposed to Sukhbir Badal and his Akali Dal and it was one of those fringe figures who attacked Sukhbir.

With both pro-Sukhbir and anti-Sukhbir factions of the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD)—including dissidents like Sukhdev Singh Dhindsa, Prem Singh Chandumajra, and Jagir Kaur—submitting themselves to the Akal Takht, the future of the party remains uncertain.

Will these factions unite to revive the party through democratic elections, or will some leaders break away to join the BJP or other political outfits?

Another key question is the ideological direction SAD (B) will take following its submission to the Akal Takht. Will it rediscover its Panthic roots to protect its core vote bank from emerging as "neo-panthic" forces, or will it continue to function as a centrist, catch-all party committed to the principles of "Punjab, Punjabi, and Punjabiyat"?

Another important question concerns the future role of the Akal Takht. Will it safeguard its newfound autonomy, remaining above routine politics, and provide moral leadership to the community? Or was its recent assertion merely a temporary phenomenon driven by the decline of the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) and its own loss of credibility?

Once the current crisis subsides, will the Akal Takht continue to maintain its independence, or will it revert to playing second fiddle to politicians, legitimising dubious political decisions?

One party which is closely watching the developments in the Akali Dal is the BJP. Its leader, Sunil Jakhar (who resigned recently as state BJP president), has welcomed the punishment of SAD leaders and praised the Akal Takht; he has also been a vocal proponent of the revival of SAD as important for Punjab.

With BJP’s disastrous performance in the four recent by-elections and its inability to penetrate Punjab’s countryside, Sunil Jakhar, notwithstanding his current isolation in the party, can become an important bridgehead for BJP/ SAD alliance before the 2027 elections.

However more worryingly for Punjab, as the attack on Sukhbir Badal demonstrated, hardline and anarchist voices are increasingly gaining ground, leading to polarisation on religion and the region with a clueless and ineffective AAP govt under Bhagwant Mann at the helm.

To put the turmoil in historical context, after a prolonged struggle against the Mahants and the British, SGPC (Shiromai Gurudwara Parbandhak Body), an elected body to manage Sikh historical shrines, and SAD (Shiromani Akali dal), the political party devoted to advance Sikh interests were formed.

Relations between the three have remained dynamic and evolving. Dominant Akali factions have tried to control SGPC and the Akal Takht Jathedar and to involve him in their factional struggles.

When Akali Dal has been weak and factionalised as in the 1980s, strong Jathedars have dictated terms like the Tankhah to former CM Surjit Singh Barnala in the late 1980s. However when SAD has been powerful, it has often disregarded Jathedars (Pr Manjit Singh in 1995) , replaced them (Bhai Ranjit Singh 1999) or dictated to take controversial decisions (Giani Gurbachan Singh 2015).

It was the controversial pardon to blasphemy accused Dera Sachcha Sauda chief  Gurmeet Ram Rahim by Akal Takht under pressure of SAD chief Sukhbir Singh Badal which led to large scale protests and subsequent incidents of firing at Behbal Kalan which led to the decline and credibility crisis for both SAD and the Akal Takht.

Will this  act of punishing Akali leaders by the Akal Takht assuage the hurt “collective consciensce” of the Sikhs and on the other revive Sikh institutions including SAD and Akal Takht facing a crisis of credibility remains to be seen.