Andhra Pradesh: TDP head turning polls into a Naidu vs Modi affair

In the run-up to the general elections, the lowering of public discourse to abysmal depths is matched only by the intensity of an apparent mutual distrust and animosity between regional political leaders and Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

If it is Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal, in Andhra Pradesh, it is Telugu Desam Party (TDP) supremo N Chandrababu Naidu, who is breathing fire at his former ally.

Just consider this: Prime Minister questions dynastic intentions of Chandrababu Naidu in grooming his son Lokesh and how Naidu backstabbed his own father-in-law, NT Rama Rao, taking the battle against his still-recent ally to a personal level. Modi came the other day to Guntur near Amaravati, the proposed capital city of Andhra Pradesh, to launch a broadside against Naidu and his alliance-hopping politics, and condemned him for efforts to hand over the state to his son Lokesh.

Not the one to take anything lying down, Naidu took Narendra Modi head on and took a trainload of Andhrites to the then Union capital to hold protest demonstrations against the central government. Naidu did not take the reference to his family affairs by the Prime Minister well and attacked Modi on his marriage status. “You speak about triple talaq. Now I am asking you about your wife,” Naidu told a private television channel on Monday. The campaign for the 2019 general election promises to be dirtier with personal attacks, corruption allegations and counter-allegations, and accusations on a host of issues, further heating up the political discourse.

In Andhra Pradesh where the BJP is trying to gain a foothold, it knows that for the general elections this time around, it has little or no chances of winning any of the 25 seats on offer in the state. But the BJP can try and tie up with local parties and if things work out, it can perhaps walk away with a couple of seats. But more importantly, the intentions of the BJP, as made clear by Modi, to target Naidu as a corrupt leader and promoter of his dynasty, are to weaken the TDP in the national context. Last time, the TDP added its 16 to the NDA kitty.

But this time around, the TDP has already walked out of the NDA. Which is why the BJP would like to defeat Naidu. It already knows it cannot win, but can only work to defeat the TDP and hope the regional party, led by Jaganmohan Reddy, would come aboard the NDA after the polls.

Naidu has cleverly chosen his enemy: Narendra Modi and he hopes to be seen as challenging the PM in Andhra Pradesh, just like Mamata is doing in West Bengal and Akhilesh-Mayawati are doing in Uttar Pradesh. Since the BJP’s presence in Andhra Pradesh is negligible, Naidu gains an upper hand in the perception battle, as also on the ground vis-à-vis the Modi-Shah duo. Moreover, Modi’s narrative of regionalising dynasty politics, as part of the BJP’s overall macro-narrative of Congress, in a coalition of dynasties as a strategy against the TDP is unlikely to yield any benefits to the BJP. Especially so because it was in alliance with the TDP till a few months back.

“I don’t think Modi vs Naidu will yield any result to the BJP in Andhra, where the party has no ground, party and leadership presence, unlike Karnataka, where BJP is the principal opposition with a leader like BS Yeddyurappa,” John Arokiasamy, perception strategist who worked with the Congress in 2018 in Karnataka and the PMK in 2016 in Tamil Nadu, said.

Perhaps in Karnataka, the sub-nationalist identity narrative against the BJP hurt it a little as the party fell narrowly short of a majority.

Arokiasamy said that the shrewd politician in Naidu is trying to turn the Andhra polls into a Naidu versus Modi personality contest by upping the ante against the BJP and being seen as a strong southern leader, standing up to the might of the central government, all alone in the state.

“In Andhra Pradesh, it is Modi versus the people of Andhra Pradesh,” Naidu said. However, this alone would not do as the battle has become tougher for Naidu. “A mere special status for Andhra Pradesh, as promised by the then central government when bifurcating the state, as core issue will not suffice for Naidu’s battle against Modi. The Prime Minister has been vociferously attacking Naidu by shaking the very foundation of Telugu pride, evoking how Naidu backstabbed NTR then and now by joining the Congress. Beyond the anti-Modi narrative, Naidu has to make people of Andhra believe in him being the best hope for building a post-bifurcation Andhra Pradesh. This is one key aspect on which both Jagan (Jaganmohan Reddy) and film star-turned-politician Pawan Kalyan are attacking Naidu. This time, Naidu will be facing strong anti-incumbency on the ground,” John Arokiasamy added.