Big Picture: BJP hopes for bail-out by TRS and YSRCP 

Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, which together send a sizeable chunk of 42 MPs to the Lok Sabha, may very well hold the key to government formation, not unlike in 2004 and 2009, when united Andhra Pradesh stood solidly behind the Congress and helped it in forming the government.

Why these two states are important is because it is from here that the ruling BJP at the Centre could hope to gain in South India as rest of the southern states are no go areas for the Hindutva forces. And even here, the BJP can hardly hope to win directly but will have to rest content with the support of regional forces that are in a tough fight with the Congress and the Telugu Desam Party.

Barring Karnataka, the BJP has little or no presence in the other southern states. If we take Tamil Nadu, in the last general elections, the BJP managed to win a single seat out of the total 39 and that too thanks to the Congress. The Congress candidate in Kanyakumari was strong enough to cut into AIADMK votes and paved the way for the victory of the BJP candidate, now Union Minister Pon Radhakrishnan.

But this time around, the BJP as also its alliance partner AIADMK are having a tough time in the state due to double anti-incumbency. Besides, the BJP is staring at a growing ire of people as they perceive the central government to be anti-Tamil Nadu on a host of issues. In Kerala, all the best efforts of the BJP are unlikely to bear fruit in terms of seats in Lok Sabha, though it could increase its vote share.

Out of the 130 seats up for grabs in the six southern states – Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Kerala and Puducherry - the BJP could win just about 10 seats or so, the rest going to the Congress and regional players.

Because, in its strongest southern hope of Karnataka, the BJP had won 17 out of the 28 seats on offer during 2014 general elections. Today, the arithmetic on the ground is against the party. Unless the Congress and Janata Dal (S) work against each other, there appears little chance that the BJP can retain its seats or even win half the seats it had won last time.

The lone Puducherry seat, a traditional Congress bastion could stay with the Congress. But even then, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana could help the BJP at the time of government formation in the post-poll scenario as Telangana Rashtra Samiti of K Chandrasekhar Rao and YSRCP of Jaganmohan Reddy are likely to support an NDA government rather than go with the Congress.

For the Congress and opposition grouping, the challenge is to check the two regional forces and restrict their numbers. One thing is becoming increasingly clear – in television studios, the BJP-led NDA and its prospective allies have already won the war. But the situation on the ground is somewhat different, as elections results would show.