Kartarpur Corridor and India’s Dilemma

On 22 September 1539, the first guru of Sikhs, Baba Nanak Dev passed away at kartarpur where he lived the last sixteen years of life. The legend has been many and of them was; when devotees came to see him there became a dispute for the last rites, as he was popular and revered by all faiths. When the devotees came to see him, his body couldn’t be seen and it is believed when he departed for the heavenly abode it was just the petals of flowers that were left to be seen. The chador and flowers were distributed by his devotes and one finds both Mazar and Gurudwara at kartarpur Sahib in the Narowal district in Pakistan bordering Dera Baba Nana in Indian Punjab. After the partition in 1947 Kartarpur Sahib Gurudwara became the victim of hostility between India and Pakistan. It remained closed till 1999. On many occasions both Indian and Pakistani Prime Ministers from Bhutto to Nawaz and Vajpayee to Manmohan Singh wanted to open the corridor for the Sikh devotees but the ‘Super Primer Minister’ status enjoyed by Pakistan Army Chief always had the veto power. The opening of Kartarpur is perceived as a soft power binding religious community but there is a definite realpolitik involved. It is unconventional, hybrid and truly designed as Pak army’s way of war taking India’s dilemma on the Kartarpur corridor.

The Chief Minister of Indian Punjab, Amrinder Singh has often stated this hybrid warfare by the Pakistan Army under the garb of religious sentiments and now the olive branch by Pakistan to the former Indian Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh, a Sikh is a sharp diplomatic plot. The Indian state ruled by far-right BJP, perceived as a flag bearer of ‘Hindu Rashtra’ and anti-minority is on the backfoot. Pakistan’s failure to garner international support on Kashmir except China and Turkey is less of a diplomatic success for India as Kashmir question is now become India’s more graveyard; a settler state and a coloniser. Diplomatically, India is losing to Pakistan on the issue of Kashmir considering the call for mediation by many including Donald Trump. The kartarpur corridor is an elusive quest for peace but a new method of a hybrid warfare by Pak army and its chief Qamar Bajwa.

Bajwa Doctrine

It is not a coincidence that opening of kartarpur corridor came from current Pakistan Army Chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa. Interestingly, the last time it was former Army chief Musharraf who accepted the Indian proposal in 2000 but never reciprocated for own good reason. Due to its religious sentiments Bajwa’s decision had to be reciprocated by the Indian Government and the real man of the match was Navjot Singh Siddhu. He has been cornered by the state government after a backlash from BJP terming his act as pro-Pakistan. kartarpur corridor was a strategic move to force India for a possible talk at the highest level. Imran khan also stated that ‘he and the chief Bajwa are on the same page and world must see who are the real doves’. But can India expect a meaningful dialogue and can Pakistan be trusted seeing the history of double standards meddled with proxy wars under the garb of nuclear threats? At present, however, if one summarizes the rhetoric from all sides, then the wall is definitely written with frivolous claims. Foreign Minister of Pakistan Shah Mehmood Qureshi called it a ‘googly’ from Imran Khan. General Bajwa despite being an ‘ambassador of peace’ was seen comforting Gopal Singh Chawla, the central figure of pro-Khalistan movement reflects his sinister design. Kartarpur initiative is less historic and more strategic: to open multiple front wars against India. Indian dilemma is: how to change horses in the midstream. The mere rhetoric won’t add any success against Pakistan as India’s own credentials as a secular state are contested now.

Amidst making kartarpur, a historic moment and a roadmap for the elusive peace process, one must take a pause and analyze; what went wrong in the past and why any negotiation with Pakistan must follow a concrete plan unlike New Delhi’s usual flip flop, especially since Modi, came to power.

Cost of Peace

The trust deficit and mutual antagonism between the two nuclear states will further deescalate the relations. Pakistan is in mess, its currency has dwindled to the worst, its exports have reduced to historical low, there is no guarantee from China till now and the nature of Gulf support has not been made public. The possible IMF bailout won’t be easy either considering Trump’s recent remarks on Pakistan by closing all financial supports. IMF will not tread a different path against US position. Pak army is the biggest beneficiary of its economy and the crippling economy has reduced its clout and would further reduce its legitimacy. The cost of Peace for Pakistan is survival. It can’t wage a war against India with a failing economy. From Afghanistan to Kashmir their understating is ‘to wait’ till it brings its economy back from slumber. The only plan that would do; offer peace and support proxy. Kartarpur corridor is a perfect plan for General Bajwa from Kashmir to Punjab.

What’s Next for India?

Amidst India’s action in Kashmir, the options for India to use diplomacy against Pakistan is limited. Modi government neighbourhood policy from China, Nepal, Sri Lanka to The Maldives is under serious stress. Modi government has failed to provide any containment policy and even its relation with Trump has brought many embarrassments. In April 2019, both countries hosted the celebration of 550 birth anniversary of Nanak Dev Ji, but the quest for peace before and after that didn’t bring any comfort between the rivals. India’s options on kartarpur are limited. It’s failing economy, the obsession with Pakistan, over-dependence on the US and a tense relationship with China, will not favour India. The release of 550 prisoners, the decision to commute the death sentence of one prisoner to life sentence and prematurely releasing eight others on the occasion of the 550th birth anniversary of Guru Nanak Dev as a humanitarian gesture is a part of that policy. Kartarpur corridor is less a roadmap for peace between India and Pakistan but rather a test for Indian diplomacy and its strategy.