Musings on 1st anniversary of Lockdown: When the wood was missed for the tree

Every man has a certain fixed pattern. Narendra Modi is fixated on four hours. The time he gives from announcement to implementation of snap decisions. Demonetisation left us crowding ATMs for four hours, from 8 pm to 12 am. Came coronavirus, and deja vu! Modi stuck to his habitual 4-hour deadline.

Frustrating. But that's lesson No.1 from the pandemic lockdown. A lesson only for Modi. Enough of his 4-hour deadlines. A majority does not mean he can spring surprises on the people. He did it with demonetisation. He did it with the lockdown.

People were caught with their pants down when Modi announced the lockdown on March 24, 2020. It wasn't wise to catch people on the wrong foot.

There were only around 600 coronavirus positive cases on March 24, 2020. But the number picked up momentum and there was panic. Getting exponential because the lockdown was like prison time. Cut off and shut up in cubicles, people went crazy. More so the migrant workers. Those who eked out a living in the unorganised sector. Small folks, small incomes.

Covid-19, the social distancing and the fear that the virus could travel airborne put the fear of death in ordinary people. The fact that you were stranded where you were stranded and the fear that back home your parents and wives and children could be dying of the coronavirus or hunger pangs was harrowing.

Only, the migrant worker had no chance or choice. He had to get out, and start walking. Factories had shut down. Small businesses had pulled down shutters. Tenants faced heat from house owners. The neighbourhood mom and pop shops refused to sell on credit. Tightening the belt was the option, but for how long, and how many notches?

Thus began the marathon. Cross-country. People hiked and people trekked. From Chennai to Patna, Bengaluru to West Bengal. On foot with backpacks. Many became roadkill, others died on railway tracks. There were no trains, no buses. There was only the never-ending one foot after the other foot. Monotonous.

Some people cycled. By the time the government arranged trains, the misery was total. Lesson No.2 for Modi. Don't lockdown unprepared. You cannot expect people to give up and die of hunger.

The lockdown also helped. It kept the coronavirus under lockdown, in degrees, depending upon place and particulars. Certain states managed the lockdown better than other states. Super-spreaders and certain community rebels notwithstanding.

Then, again, if the government hadn't taken some very harsh steps, the number of Covid-19 cases would have been far higher. Like in the USA, and in Brazil, in the United Kingdom, and Italy, Spain. Covid-19 could not overwhelm the Indian healthcare system. We owe the utmost gratitude to the frontline healthcare workers, the corona warriors. The gravediggers and the ambulance jockeys.

On the micro, individual level, the lockdown was killing to millions. People were left to scrounge. Tens of thousands lost jobs. India's unorganised sector coupled with Modi's pakoranomics took their toll. People's meagre savings were wiped out. The poor got poorer. The government tried to cover up with MGNREGA.

Did the lockdown/lockdowns break the chain of transmission of Covid-19? The answer is nope. It just slowed it down. The coronavirus kept returning with differences in appearance, and intent. India is so far holding up, but for how long? Another sustained lockdown will be depressing.

There is a realisation that India’s COVID-19 management record is pretty good. But there's also the sneaking feeling that Modi is covering up setbacks by giving away free vaccines to other countries. In fact, there are accusations that the Modi Government is giving away more free vaccines than Indians are getting inoculated. That India's 'vaccine maitri' is geared to make Modi popular worldwide.

Nevertheless, India's vaccine story is a success story. With its capacities in manufacturing vaccines, India has contributed to the prevention and even cure of Covid-19. Earlier, India helped with supplies of HCQ. The big lesson is that military might alone does not make a superpower.

Looked at from another angle, there is the future to reckon with. The future of the coronavirus. To begin with very less was known about the dead inanimate. But now a lot is known. Let's hope the government has learnt some lessons. The fact that there's a spike again in coronavirus positive cases is worrying.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi held a meeting with the Chief Ministers on March 17, and spoke of the “more than 150 per cent increase in positive cases in 70 districts of the country.” That's the biggest lesson of them all: You do not sit on your laurels. Nor do you squat on your mistakes.

The lockdown cost billions in rupees, and millions in livelihoods. Hope politicians, bureaucrats and social scientists have learned from the way the migrant workers reacted to the lockdown. The initial government apathy and even disdain was egregious. Among the many lessons learned was the one that human dignity cannot be sacrificed at the altar of expediency.

(IPA Service)

Views expressed are personal