The curious case of BJP in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar

If in Uttar Pradesh and elsewhere in India opposition parties are closing their ranks to put a united fight in 2019, in Bihar leaders of all the four constituents of the National Democratic Alliance will put their heads together in Patna on June 7 to tackle the situation arising after the May 31 by-poll verdict.

As the BJP could win only one Lok Sabha and one Assembly seat out of 15 seats which went to election on May 28, the Janata Dal (United) leaders KC Tyagi and Pawan Verma on June 3 declared that the NDA should contest the 2019 poll in Bihar with chief minister Nitish Kumar as its face. They told this to the mediapersons after a four-hour long brainstorming session of the party top-brass held at chief minister’s official residence in Patna on June 3.

The get-together on June 7 has been prompted by the fact that in Bihar the situation is entirely different.

In Uttar Pradesh while the Bharatiya Janata Party––which has Apna Dal and Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party as its allies––lost three crucial Lok Sabha by-polls in less than three months to the combined opposition force, in Bihar, the powerful alliance of BJP, Janata Dal (United), Lok Janshakti Party and Rashtriya Lok Samata Party has failed to halt the winning streak of Rashtriya Janata Dal, which enjoys the backing of Congress––not a very strong party in the state.

No doubt on paper the NDA is a very formidable unit in Bihar, especially after the homecoming of Nitish Kumar-led JD(U) yet the consolidation of RJD is posing a big challenge to it. At the same time, the tussle is on within the four NDA constituents to increase their successive bargaining positions.

It is true RJD just retained Araria LS and Jehanabad Assembly seats, but it should not be overlooked that it snatched Jokihat from JD(U). Incidentally, the BJP only managed to retain the Nokha Assembly seat in March by defeating Congress.

The worry in the NDA camp is understandable as RJD continues to win by-polls when the dice is loaded heavily against it. Its supremo Lalu Prasad is in jail and not in the best of health. The party’s command is on the shoulders of 28-year-old Tejashwi Prasad, who with his family members are being haunted by investigating agencies.

In contrast the NDA has all the stalwarts––Nitish, Ram Vilas Paswan, Sushil Kumar Modi, Upendra Kushwaha and hordes of Union ministrs belonging to different castes.

It should not be forgotten that in 2009 and 2010 when only BJP and JD(U) were the parts of NDA the latter performed extremely well. It won 32 out of 40 seats––20 by JD(U) and 12 by BJP. They had contested 25 and 15 seats respectively.

In 2010 Assembly poll the NDA walked away with 206 out of 243 seats––115 by JD(U) and 91 by the BJP.

The NDA virtually swept the Seemanchal region of north-east Bihar where Muslims have a sizeable presence. It needs to be reminded that the NDA wave compelled RJD stalwart Mohammad Taslimuddin and his son Safrafaz Alam to jump on the Nitish’s bandwagon. They returned to RJD later.

The NDA achieved this feat even when chief minister Nitish Kumar flatly refused to allow the then Gujarat CM Narendra Modi to campaign in the state. In fact the BJP performed very badly in 2009 in rest of India.

The big question is: why is it that today NDA is not repeating its past performance when two more parties––LJP and RLSP––became its constituents on the eve of 2014 LS poll?

Perhaps both Nitish Kumar and PM Modi have lost much of their magical touch of 2009, 2010 and 2014 elections. The former seems to have forfeited his capability to lead ‘the coalition of extremes’. Though in alliance with the saffron brigade he had then attracted a lot of left-leaning secular elements as well as Muslims to his side.

On the other hand Modi appears to be losing much of his mass appeal, especially after demonetization and shoddy implementation of GST.

The decline of Nitish and Modi has provided Lalu an opportunity to bounce back. It can not be denied that even in the worst case scenario RJD would garner around 20 per cent votes. If the political scenario changes it requires little effort to make it 30-plus percentage or even more. Alliance with Congress makes the two a fighting combination.

Political observers are of the view that the re-consolidation of RJD is creating uneasiness in the NDA rank and file. If the fortune of RJD-Congress combine swings up some more leaders of the NDA may do a Jitam Ram Manjhi, who deserted the NDA on February 28, 2018. Former speaker of Bihar Assembly Uday Narayan Chaudhary followed him and Patna Saheb MP Shatrughan Sinha is up in arms against his own party, the BJP.

Anyway the BJP is still hopeful of doing better in Bihar in comparison to UP, where it came to power with overwhelming majority only last year.

After the May 31 by-poll results from across the country realization has dawned upon the saffron party leaders that they can no more ignore Nitish, Ram Vilas and even for that matter Upendra Kushwaha. But for the trio this would be the best opportunity to seek their own pound of flesh.