The tripod that raises Zohran Mamdani, almost-mayor of New York City

If all goes well, and your columnist is really hoping that it does go well, the world’s most famous city will soon be won and run by a man with a Gujarati father and a Punjabi mother. Zohran Mamdani won the Democratic Party’s nomination in June and, on 4 November, will likely win the general election to become New York’s mayor. (Early voting began today, 26 October.)

What I wanted to focus on was his campaign and how he came out on top. In January this year, he was polling at 1 per cent, but by June had won 43 per cent of the primary (the election that decides who will represent the Democratic Party in the general) and now polls show him at 50 per cent in an expanded electorate of the entire city. How did this happen? Americans refer to such analysis as punditry; let us indulge in it.

First, take a look at the city’s demographics. New York has 350,000 millionaires and 123 billionaires, as might be expected in the metro that hosts Wall Street. But one fourth of its population lives in poverty, as defined by  the city. That definition — a family of four surviving on $47,000 or less a year — encompasses more than 20 lakh New Yorkers.

Mamdani’s starting point in his campaign was to focus on this problem of affordability. This went against conventional wisdom and polling, which showed that crime and safety were top priorities for voters. Mamdani’s rivals focused on those, but he took up affordability and made it his plank.

He then offered three primary solutions: a four-year rent freeze on rent-stabilised apartments (in which 20 lakh tenants live); free childcare for children up to the age of five (something which costs a family around $22,000 per year if both parents are working); and free buses. He stayed with this message from the start of his campaign a year ago until now, with no change.

The second element of his success is the volunteer army that took up his cause. In June, these ‘soldiers’ were 50,000 in number; of them, 30,000 had participated in door-to-door campaigns, canvassing on the streets or making phone calls on his behalf to raise money — or sign up more volunteers. By the end of October, their numbers are likely to have nearly doubled. This is a staggering number and can be explained by two things.

The bulk of this army comes from Mamdani’s political home, the New York branch of the Democratic Socialists of America. This is a group that began participating in elections only a decade ago, but has seen success because it is laser-focused on issues affecting working-class people. Mamdani’s campaign greatly expanded the number of volunteers that the DSA deployed in previous elections.

His campaign team of youngsters (he is 34 and many of his team are younger than he is), most of whom had little experience in managing something of this size, have turned out to be more competent and effective than the ‘experienced’ consultants and strategists.

The third element was the candidate himself. Mamdani is Muslim and openly identifies as such — in a city where Islamophobia remains an issue, has been particularly since 9/11. But New York is also a city where 40 per cent of the population were born outside America and a city that has large Muslim and South Asian populations, which have rallied to his cause.

Just as important is his ability to attract all sorts of people, including young Jewish New Yorkers, because of his charm and his talent. His dazzling social media output will be studied for years as a model. Indeed, even many months ago, politicians across America were already copying it — though most of them badly, because they lack Mamdani’s ability to make it all look effortless and fun. He is a happy warrior, as American pundits refer to him.

These three things, to my mind, are the building blocks of his (fingers crossed) victory come 4 November.

I have touched on this in a previous column, but if and when he wins, he will represent a shift in the way many Americans see Israel. Polls now consistently show that the majority of Americans sympathise with Palestinians over Israel because of its practice of apartheid and genocide. But this shift has not been owned in politics, because the Israel lobby is powerful and nasty, and can kneecap candidates running for office.

Mamdani has weathered their sharpest attacks, however, while being called (predictably) a jihadist, and a bigot, and anti-semitic, and so on. We know this because it was an essential part of his rival’s attack strategy in the primary. It continues even now, but has not been as effective as it might have been even just a couple of years ago — because of Mamdani’s courage, as much as the appalling behaviour of the Israeli state.

Optimists think that if he is able to govern New York competently, Mamdani’s campaign and his platform can offer a model for the entire Democratic Party in America. We shall see if that happens, but it is true that there is no other alternative that has been put forward by those inside the party which is as original as Mamdani’s and (again fingers crossed) as successful.

What an achievement it will be if a young Gujarati–Punjabi man is able to give the most powerful nation in the world a new direction!

Views are personal.

 More of Aakar Patel’s writing may be read here