Why BJP finds itself on a Stickier wicket in Assam

The coming together of Congress, AIUDF, BPF and others in a grand alliance or Mahajot has made the electoral prospects of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) shakier than they seemed last month.

Badruddin Ajmal-led All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) was earlier treated as a pariah but before he passed away last year, former chief minister Tarun Gogoi advocated an alliance with AIUDF. Ajmal, a three-time Lok Sabha Member from Assam’s Dhubri constituency, can swing votes in favour of the Congress as his party has a decisive strength in about 35 minority-dominated Assembly seats.

The Grand Alliance or Mahajot now consists of the Congress, AIUDF, Bodo party BPL, CPI (M), CPI, CPI (ML) (Liberation) and a newly formed local outfit Aanchalik Gana Morcha led by journalist, activist and Rajya Sabha MP Ajit Kumar Bhuyan. The Bodoland People Front (BPF) breaking away from NDA and joining the Mahajot has come as another jolt for the BJP. The Mahajot has left all the 12 seats in the Bodoland Territorial Council area for BPF.

The left parties have their own areas of influence where they can swing two to five thousand votes in each constituency in favour of alliance candidates.

Last time the BJP won eight of the 15 seats in the Barak Valley with the AIUDF and Congress bagging four and three seats each. But this time the grand alliance hopes to take the fight to the BJP in Barak Valley where Bengali speaking Hindus are its strength.

The state BJP government led by Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal has been handing out a lot of freebies and cash to the people of Assam covering farmers, women, students, youth, widows, pensioners, tea workers etc, bringing almost a Crore of them under the ambit of such sops. It remains to be seen how these freebies will influence the voting pattern.

“The Britishers allowed free flow of opium among the Assamese and other tribal people to keep them submissive. BJP government’s schemes are a continuation of this policy whereby they want to keep Assamese people as zombies and nincompoops,” says Ron Duara, a senior journalist at Dibrugarh in Upper Assam. Upper Assam has 47 seats and these seats will be going to the polls in the very first phase. The majority of these seats were won by the BJP in 2016. But this time BJP has been forced to grapple with internal discord after it decided to give ticket to defectors from the Congress and the AGP.

In Golaghat, there is virtual revolt in BJP for giving ticket to Ajanta Neog, who was a minister in the Tarun Gogoi government and defected to the BJP last year. In many other constituencies the BJP is struggling to contain rebels.

BJP’s biggest problem is its number two man in Assam, Himanta Biswa Sarma, and his chief ministerial ambitions. HBS, himself an early defector from Congress, has packed the candidates’ list with people personally loyal to him. He is perceived as the de facto chief minister and far more powerful than Sarbananda Sonowal.

BJP has also denied ticket to 11 sitting MLAs including a cabinet minister. More heads are likely to roll when the second list is announced.

Congress, on the other hand, has given ticket to 16 new faces for seats in the first phase of polling. Many of the new candidates are young with grassroot connections and seem to have greater acceptability among people.

The newly formed third alliance of Raijor Dal (RD) and Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP) is the dark horse. While Raijor Dal was formed by supporters of the jailed Krishak Mukti Sangram Samity (KMSS) leader Akhil Gogoi, AJP was formed by former AASU leaders who came out in the open against the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA). A large number of young voters, who were once supporters of BJP, have now joined the AJP and this alliance may cut into the votes of BJP-AGP combine.

While Akhil Gogoi wanted to have some truck with the Congress minus the AIUDF as he considers BJP more dangerous, AJP apparently rejected the idea. Now Gogoi has asked his supporters to vote for opposition candidates wherever RD has not fielded its candidates. Assam thus will witness a triangular fight in almost all constituencies. The CAA has also helped consolidate Muslim voters and others opposed to the CAA in favour of the grand alliance.

Over the years, Congress has seen a steady erosion of its traditional support base among tea garden workers. But the instant rapport that AICC general secretary Priyanka Gandhi Vadra struck with the workers on a recent visit has come as a shot in its arm.