Why the war in Gaza doesn’t stop

At the time of writing, Israel’s seemingly interminable war on Gaza had entered Day #655. The devastation defies description. More than 60,000 people have been killed. Gaza lies in ruins, its population of two million driven to starvation and disease, in what the United Nations calls a man-made humanitarian catastrophe.

Even the White House now describes Israel’s campaign as ‘brutal’. On 21 July, a coalition of 25 countries — including the UK, France and nearly all of Western Europe (except Germany) besides Canada and Japan — issued a joint declaration that the war in Gaza ‘must end now’. They have condemned Israel’s aid blockade and the killing of civilians trying to reach food and water, calling its conduct ‘inhumane’ and ‘unacceptable’.

Yet the war grinds on. Israel’s far-right finance minister Bezalel Smotrich calls Gaza an inseparable part of the State of Israel and asks for a “security annexation” of northern Gaza Strip.

Why? The answer lies not in military calculations or a national security doctrine but in the personal political calculus of one man — Benjamin Netanyahu.

Despite Israel’s growing isolation and the public outcry from Western capitals, Netanyahu continues to prosecute the war in Gaza with unyielding force. Hamas has been decimated and Israeli hostages are still hostages. But the war has become a political lifeline for Netanyahu.

He faces criminal charges at home, public support is declining, and dissent is growing within his cabinet and the military. Netanyahu is using the war as a political shield. Crucially, he has calculated — correctly so far — that while the West may condemn him in words, it will not cut off the material support he needs to keep the war going.

For way too long, Western governments were loath to even criticise Israel’s conduct. Blame it on historic guilt, geopolitical alignments or their strong pro-Israel lobbies, but countries like the US, UK, Germany and France have either backed Netanyahu’s war openly or remained conspicuously silent.

However, the sheer scale of destruction in Gaza, the killing of aid workers and journalists, the killing of children, the brutality at aid sites, the manifest ethnic cleansing — and the mounting allegations of their complicity in these war crimes have challenged the silence.

The US, after months of sending arms and blocking ceasefire resolutions, now calls Israel’s actions ‘indefensible’. Germany, once Israel’s most loyal supporter in Europe, has warned that its solidarity is not unconditional. The UK and France, under intense domestic pressure from massive anti-war protests, have urged Israel to end its campaign and allow humanitarian aid to flow. Even US President Donald Trump now openly expresses discomfort.

But these statements, forceful as they may sound, have had little impact on Netanyahu. Why? Because these words are not backed by real consequences.

Israel’s war machine runs, in large part, on Western support. American weapons, European trade and diplomatic protection — especially at the United Nations Security Council — are all vital to Israel’s military operations. Despite escalating criticism, that support has largely continued. The flow of weapons from Israel’s allies in the West — weapons that have flattened neighbourhoods in Gaza — continues. European nations have not suspended trade or imposed meaningful sanctions.

This dissonance between Western rhetoric and action has allowed Netanyahu to be defiant even while being dependent; he relies on the West but feels no pressure to obey it. It’s a familiar pattern: Netanyahu has long exploited divisions within Western democracies to play them off each other, sowing the idea that he is indispensable to their regional interests.

The threat of regional escalation, the so-called Iranian proxies and domestic instability in Israel keeps Western leaders cautious. Netanyahu, a political survivor of almost mythic proportions, understands that as long as he can maintain the image of Israel as a ‘democracy under siege’, he can continue to count on Western backing, even if it’s begrudging.

The other big reason the war doesn’t stop is that Netanyahu needs it to survive an uncertain future.

At home, he is extremely unpopular. Israeli society is fractured, with large protests demanding early elections. There is growing criticism in the military of his handling of the hostage crisis. Families of the hostages accuse him of sacrificing their loved ones to prolong his political career. His fragile coalition of far right and ultra-religious parties teeters under pressure. And ongoing corruption trials hang over it all; if he loses power, he might end up in prison.

So, the war is not just a military campaign but a political strategy of survival. As long as the war continues, Netanyahu can delay elections, deflect

attention from his legal entanglements, and suppress dissent by invoking national security. He can court the far right by refusing ceasefire deals, rejecting Palestinian statehood and expanding settlements. He can paint critics as traitors or naïfs and portray himself as the only leader strong enough to defend Israel from existential threats.

But his war wouldn’t be viable without the support of the West, which has enormous leverage over Israel. Netanyahu’s impunity is a byproduct of the military support from these nations and the diplomatic cover he gets in the UN Security Council. European nations are also among Israel’s largest trading partners. A unified Western front could pressure Israel into an immediate ceasefire and to grant humanitarian access, thereby creating a political roadmap for peace.

The West has not exercised that leverage. Instead, it has issued warnings while continuing to supply arms. It has expressed concern without imposing conditions. It has called for restraint while vetoing UN resolutions that demand it. This gap between posture and policy has enabled and emboldened Netanyahu.

Appeals won’t stop Netanyahu. If the West really wants to stop this war, it must speak in the language he understands — conditional aid, arms embargos, diplomatic isolation and clear red lines with real consequences. Netanyahu has exploited the West’s hesitation long enough. If leaders in Washington, Berlin, London and Paris truly want the killing to end, they must stop enabling it.

Ashok Swain is a professor of peace and conflict research at Uppsala University, Sweden. More of his writing may be read here